Brexit, housing, the general economy & everything in between Alan Ahearne

Alan Ahearne

Alan is currently a Professor of Economics and Director of the Whitaker Institute at the National University of Ireland, Galway, and has also taught economics at UCD, DCU and the Carnegie Mellon University. He is Chairman of the Joint Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and Department of Finance Research Programme on the Macro-economy and Taxation and a member of the Independent Review Group set up by the Minister for Health, Simon Harris in December 2017 to examine the removal of private practice from public acute hospitals.

Coined by the Independent News and Media Group as �the man who told you so�, Alan is an internationally renowned economist, and was one of the very few people that spoke out before the economic collapse warning that the country was headed straight for it in 2007. With working experience serving as a special advisor to Brian Lenihen in 2011 and in the United States where he served as external advisor to the Strategy, Practice and Review Department of the International Monetary Fund, advising IMF senior management on how the Fund could better support the efforts of countries at all levels of income to boost growth and create jobs in the period ahead.

We talk Brexit, property, housing, the general economy and everything in between.

0:00

�We are a small economy so things that happen abroad certainly have a big impact on us. That�s not to say that there is nothing we can do for ourselves. If we do good policy we are likely to be more resilient and likely to fight off negative shocks and take advantage of good things that happen.�

1:25

Conversation about Brexit

Hard Brexit might have a serious effect on the Irish economy because the UK is a large trading partner

Trade barriers may rise � customs duties, borders (agriculture and agri-food)

Migration and controlling the borders � the main reasons for Brexit

�Brexit, whether is soft or hard, will be bad for UK economy�

3:50

Impact of Brexit on London and financial services

Soft Brexit will slow down the growth of the British economy, but not cause a financial crisis

Financial services not be included in free trade agreements � better for European capitals

5:45

How can SMEs from Ireland can go through hard Brexit

Need to diversify � open new markets in other countries

7:20

Sectors which are in danger of hard Brexit

Agri-food and haulage industry

Affected supply chain � importing and exporting businesses (ex. getting supplies from the UK � medical devices, pharmaceutical products, IT)

8:30

Benefits and opportunities for Ireland after Brexit

Dublin will benefit an area of financial services

Disrupted trade � Irish exporters might be hurt by hard border

Exporting goods and services replacing British exportersish language

12:55

The property market

External shocks may impact Irish economy

Problems in the property market � different than in 2007, will not cause a crisis

�Central Bank has rules in place� and those rules will do a lot to guard against a sort of bubble that we have seen previously�

Central Bank rules limit the increase of property prices

Big increase of supply of houses may cause prices to drop

18:05

Interests rates

European Central Bank expected to raise interest rates. Federal Reserve in the US is already doing it

No rapid increase, but in the long term interests rates are expected to grow

19:20

Lessons from the Federal Reserve for Ireland

�When the sun is really shiny, you need to be careful and you need to save for a rainy day.�

20:25

Would you buy a property now?

It depends on the specific situation, sysyemic shocks

21:30

The European Union & Ireland

Instrumental in bringing peace between countries

Economically positive � increased trade, rules-based, positive business environment

By the construct mess is inevitable

23:40

Competitive advantages of US capitalism over EU economy and emerging Asian economies

Technological progress and innovations come from the US

The ability for new businesses to emerge and grow

Research and development

China is also superpower economy � growing very fast