Summary

(03:06) Constantin’s childhood years being brought up in Moscow

• Born in 1968

• It was very different to modern day Russia as it was in the Soviet Union

• His friends were all different nationalities

• Ukrainians are like his brothers and sisters

• Constantin grew up travelling abroad and saw what existed outside of the Soviet Union

• He always wanted to study international affairs

(09:22) How it feels to be Russian

• It feels shocking that there are Russian troops in Ukraine

• There is a sense of academic self-doubt for Constantin on not noticing the warning signs that led up to the war

• One of the big issues is considering how to go from this level of violence to normality

• Usually, after a few weeks into a major event, you are able to process what is happening ‘ but this doesn’t seem to be the case with the Russian invasion of Ukraine so far

(16:09) Constantin’s approach to making decisions

• Collect the data without having a pre-conclusion

• Focus on forming the hypothesis to then test out

• It’s virtually impossible to estimate what stage in the war Russia is with Ukraine as is too early to collect enough information

(24:31) The impact of imposing sanctions on Russia

• Russia is historically comfortable with sudden changes, e.g. a sharp decline in quality of living, so long as it is justified by a national objective

• Putin’s approval ratings have gone up

• The disapproval of the war is not necessarily the disapproval of Putin for some Russians

(38:32) The impact of consumerism on the traditional Russian mindset of supporting the State

• There has been some erosion on this more traditional mindset amongst the younger, more urban and educated classes

• Some Russians associate prosperity of the country from Putin’s impact

(44:42) Do we know what Putin’s objectives are with the war?

• We don’t know for sure, so it all comes down to probability and finding the most rational explanation first

• The higher objective for Putin is having a legacy

• ‘You don’t invade a country if you want to build a relationship of equals’

(52:45) Is there a point of no return for Putin?

• It’s highly doubtful that Putin has an exit strategy that’s mutually beneficial between Russian and Ukraine

• We need signals from the West that are supporting the exit

(57:31) If the war ended, how quickly can things bounce back economically, politically and socially?

• The repair of the relationship will take a very long time

• Commodity markets will restore out of necessity

• There were sanctions in 2014 that never had a clear exit strategy, so it wasn’t clear what Moscow needed to comply with in order to end the sanctions

• It’s not clear how long the EU will give enough support and resources to Ukraine

• The integration of Ukraine in the EU will be hugely beneficial to the EU

(01:10:48) What’s at stake with the 2024 US elections

• It’s the process that’s at stake ‘ the whole democratic process is dysfunctional

• The American institution has proven to be quite resilient

• There are many parallels between Fox News and Russian state media

(01:17:07) Finding the right information online

• We live in a society that consumes information at a speed that we can’t process ourselves physically

• News today arrives fragmented

• Information is costly, e.g. accessed through subscription models, and the average American will prefer free information

• History classes in schools are non-polemic and don’t offer discussion

(01:25:54) How Ireland is doing after the 2008 crisis

• The crisis was so deep and broad across the economy, Ireland deserves recognition for handling the process

• The spread of growth through entrepreneurship is impressive

• There have been some systemic problems since, such as housing, which is a failure of policy