Part-time employment now accounts for a substantial portion of the workforce, with women comprising the majority of part-time workers [1]. Far from being a marginal arrangement for those unwilling to commit fully to their careers, part-time work has become a critical component of the modern economy. Research has found that offering more part-time opportunities could significantly boost national employment and economic growth, particularly as a significant proportion of working-age people are currently classified as economically inactive due to caring responsibilities, disabilities, or health concerns [2].
The question is no longer whether part-time work is viable, but rather how professionals can thrive within these arrangements whilst maintaining career momentum and personal wellbeing. The answer lies in understanding both the psychological principles that drive sustained performance and the practical strategies that successful part-timers have employed.
Maintaining motivation
One of the most persistent challenges facing part-time professionals is maintaining drive and ambition whilst working reduced hours. As Ayelet Fishbach, professor of behavioural science at the University of Chicago, observes: “Motivating yourself is hard. We seem to have a natural aversion to persistent effort that no amount of caffeine or inspirational posters can fix” [3]. Yet effective self-motivation is precisely what distinguishes high-achieving professionals from everyone else.
The key lies in how we design our goals. Research consistently demonstrates that concrete, specific objectives outperform vague ambitions. When salespeople have clear targets, they close more deals. When individuals make daily exercise commitments, they are more likely to increase their fitness levels [4]. For part-time workers, this means establishing precise parameters around what success looks like within their reduced hours, rather than maintaining the nebulous aspiration of simply “doing their best”.
Crucially, goals should trigger intrinsic rather than extrinsic motivation. Activities pursued for their own sake generate better outcomes than those undertaken solely for external rewards. Studies of New Year’s resolutions revealed that people who chose more pleasant goals — taking up yoga or establishing phone-free Saturdays — were more likely to maintain them in March than those who selected more important but less enjoyable objectives [5].
This finding carries over into part-time work. The trick is to focus on the elements of work that you genuinely find engaging, rather than viewing reduced hours as an inevitable career sacrifice.
Designing work that works
Jennifer Marshall, an equity partner at Allen & Overy who works four days weekly, exemplifies this principle in practice. “I get fantastic support at the associate level,” she explains. “We also have a policy that is written down for part-time equity partners. I think that is important — as it means it has the official stamp of approval. Our firm believes in it” [6]. Her success stems partly from choosing a strategic role where flexibility works well, rather than a client-facing position where reduced availability might prove problematic.
The nature of the work itself matters enormously. Miranda Kennett, an executive coach, notes that “if you’re client-facing in any way, it can be really difficult to go part time, whereas if you’re in a strategic or planning role, it works far better” [7]. This doesn’t mean client-facing roles are impossible for part-timers, but it does require careful consideration of how to structure responsibilities and manage expectations.
Technology has made many arrangements more feasible than they once were. Mobile phones, email, and laptops allow part-time professionals to remain connected and responsive even outside their scheduled hours. Marshall explains her approach: “I tell people I’ll be checking my email at such and such a time. That way, they don’t expect a response in five minutes” [8]. This strategy manages expectations whilst maintaining professional standards. People often ask Marshall if she does a five-day job in four days, and her answer is revealing (and relatable): “The answer is yes, but previously I was doing a seven-day job in five days, so I don’t feel like I’m being short changed.”
Productivity
This observation points to a counterintuitive reality, namely that part-time work can actually enhance productivity. Research suggests that output per working hour often improves with shorter working weeks [9]. Parkinson’s Law states that “work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion”. In other words, what a full-time worker accomplishes in eight hours, a focused part-timer can often achieve in six [10].
Katie McQuaid, UK Director of Fulfilment by Amazon, attributes her career development whilst working part-time to prioritising ruthlessly, delegating effectively, and being more decisive when tackling challenges [11]. This discipline extends beyond time management to encompass a fundamental rethinking of how work gets done.
The benefits extend beyond individual productivity to workplace culture. Barbara Gerstenberger, head of the working life unit at Eurofound, argues that “job quality has so many dimensions; it is not necessarily difficult or expensive to improve aspects of it. Companies that want to be prepared for the future must turn their attention to the quality of jobs they offer” [12]. When organisations support genuine flexibility rather than paying lip service to it, they retain talented staff who might otherwise leave entirely.
Navigating the career path
Yet part-time work undeniably presents challenges for career progression. The assumption persists in many organisations that reduced hours signal reduced ambition or capability. Research has found that many who have opted for shorter working weeks hit a wall and see their careers stall [13]. International surveys have reported that remote workers are less likely to receive promotions than peers who head into the office daily [14].
These obstacles are not insurmountable, however. According to Thriving Talent, seven key factors distinguish those who successfully advance their careers whilst working part-time. First, they never apologise for their hours; they communicate commitment, skill, and experience rather than prefacing descriptions of their work with “just” part-time [15]. Second, they willingly take on greater responsibility within their reduced hours, developing efficiency and demonstrating that they can deliver equivalent results in less time.
Third, they establish absolute clarity about expected outcomes and then consistently demonstrate success in achieving them. This removes any excuse for others to point to reduced hours as the reason for underperformance. Fourth, they remain ambitious, actively seeking mentors and sponsors who can help them grow their careers just as they would if working full-time.
Fifth, they maintain high visibility rather than operating under the radar. Georgina Ode, who secured a promotion whilst working part-time, learned to communicate her remit clearly rather than feeling obliged to accept all work that came her way [16]. When teams repeatedly scheduled meetings on her day off, she spoke up, a simple act that many part-timers find surprisingly difficult but which proves essential for sustainable working arrangements.
Boundaries
Managing boundaries represents perhaps the greatest practical challenge. Martina Fitzgerald, chief executive of Scale Ireland, observes that employers are increasingly valuing transversal skills such as problem solving, creative thinking, leadership, and communication, which facilitate less rigid career paths and transitions between sectors [17]. Yet these same skills can make it harder to switch off, as work becomes more about thinking and less about physical presence in a specific location.
The most successful part-timers develop firm personal discipline around their non-work time. As executive coach Miranda Kennett notes, “you have to be quite firm. But the most difficult thing can often be disciplining yourself. Very conscientious people often do a lot of work at home anyway” [18]. She recommends finding something meaningful to do on non-work days rather than frittering the time away with errands. This creates a positive reason to protect that time rather than relying solely on willpower to resist work encroachment.
Charlotte Pickering, a London barrister and mother of two who founded KiddyUP, embodies the intense discipline required. “I stay up very late as I very often only start working once my children have gone to bed,” she explains. When asked about free time, she quips: “What’s that?! I enjoy long drives to distant courts, let’s put it that way” [19]. She jokes about being a “supermum” but acknowledges this is far from the truth: “I would be lying if I said I held it together all the time. I do a good job of presenting a calm and organised façade but behind the scenes it’s a tempest.”
Support
Family support emerges consistently as a critical success factor. Naj Alavi, who combines his role as US Head of Financial Technology at Xenomorph with founding a men’s fashion label, credits his family as essential: “Without the support of my family, I don’t think my designs would have come along as far as they have. My wife is my first sounding board — if she doesn’t like something, more often than not, the design or idea needs a rework. She saves me countless hours and days” [20].
Yet family support alone proves insufficient without organisational backing. Research has found that flexible working arrangements during the pandemic helped line managers become better at managing part-time working effectively, with many reporting that it made their managers more open to such arrangements [21]. Former business leaders have argued that “one-size-fits-all working patterns no longer make sense. Offering part-time working is one of the important ways employers can attract and retain talented staff” [22].
Momentum
The psychological dimension of maintaining drive over extended periods requires particular attention. Research shows that when people work toward goals, they typically experience a burst of motivation early and then slump in the middle, where they are most likely to stall [23]. Two strategies help combat this pattern. Firstly, creating “short middles” by breaking goals into smaller subgoals with less time to succumb to the slump. Secondly, changing how we think about progress by focusing on what we’ve accomplished up to the midpoint and then shifting attention to what remains.
Social influence also plays a complex role. Simply watching ambitious, efficient, successful coworkers can prove demotivating if we passively observe them rather than engaging with them. Research demonstrates that when a friend endorses a product, people are more likely to buy it, but they aren’t likely to purchase it simply from learning that the friend bought it [24]. The same principle applies to career ambitions. Listening to what role models say about their goals can inspire and raise our sights, whilst merely watching them succeed may leave us feeling inadequate.
Interestingly, giving advice rather than asking for it may prove even more effective for overcoming motivational deficits. Studies found that people struggling to achieve goals like finding employment assumed they needed expert tips to succeed, but they were actually better served by offering their wisdom to other job seekers, because in doing so, they laid out concrete plans they could follow themselves [25].
Looking forward
The future of work is not binary, bound to be full-time or nothing. Dr John Lonsdale, chief executive of CeADAR, notes that “AI is reshaping work in virtually every sector” and that “companies that succeed in the AI era actively upskill and reskill their workforce” [26]. This transformation creates opportunities for reconsidering how work is structured and how talent is deployed. As Dónal Kearney, community manager at Grow Remote, observes: “The managers who are most flexible and who listen to employees but keep the focus on output and productivity rather than presenteeism are most likely to succeed” [27].
The greatest risk lies not in offering flexibility but in failing to adequately support managers navigating these changes: “There’s a gap right now where there are huge benefits available for staff at large, but managers are struggling to adapt,” Kearney goes on [28]. Addressing this gap through training, clear policies, and cultural change represents an investment in organisational resilience and employee wellbeing.
For professionals working or considering part-time arrangements, the evidence suggests a clear path forward. Never apologise for your hours, take on meaningful responsibility, maintain visibility, stay ambitious, develop exceptional time management skills, and secure both organisational and personal support systems. As Charlotte Pickering advises: “If you have a great idea there is no reason why you can’t start giving it some time during the evenings or at weekends. If you are truly committed to it, you will find a way” [29].
Sources
[1] https://www.productivity.ac.uk/research/part-time-work-and-productivity/
[3] https://hbr.org/2018/11/how-to-keep-working-when-youre-just-not-feeling-it
[4] https://hbr.org/2018/11/how-to-keep-working-when-youre-just-not-feeling-it
[5] https://hbr.org/2018/11/how-to-keep-working-when-youre-just-not-feeling-it
[6] https://www.ft.com/content/461f8614-bd07-11df-954b-00144feab49a
[7] https://www.ft.com/content/461f8614-bd07-11df-954b-00144feab49a
[8] https://www.ft.com/content/461f8614-bd07-11df-954b-00144feab49a
[9] https://www.productivity.ac.uk/research/part-time-work-and-productivity/
[11] https://www.thrivingtalent.solutions/blog/how-to-advance-your-career-whilst-working-part-time
[13] https://www.thrivingtalent.solutions/blog/how-to-advance-your-career-whilst-working-part-time
[14] https://www.thrivingtalent.solutions/blog/how-to-advance-your-career-whilst-working-part-time
[15] https://www.thrivingtalent.solutions/blog/how-to-advance-your-career-whilst-working-part-time
[16] https://www.thrivingtalent.solutions/blog/how-to-advance-your-career-whilst-working-part-time
[18] https://www.ft.com/content/461f8614-bd07-11df-954b-00144feab49a
[20] https://www.forbes.com/sites/dansimon/2014/07/06/become-a-successful-part-time-entrepreneur/
[23] https://hbr.org/2018/11/how-to-keep-working-when-youre-just-not-feeling-it
[24] https://hbr.org/2018/11/how-to-keep-working-when-youre-just-not-feeling-it
[25] https://hbr.org/2018/11/how-to-keep-working-when-youre-just-not-feeling-it
The festive season arrives and we’re all smiles. Yet frequently, for all the external jubilation, we internally find ourselves drowning in stress, obligation, and exhaustion. The glossy imagery of perfect families in matching pyjamas bears little resemblance to the complex realities most of us navigate during December. According to the American Psychological Association, 44% of women and a third of men report increased stress around the holidays [1]. The National Alliance on Mental Illness found that 64% of individuals living with a mental illness felt that their condition worsened during this period [2].
“We have been socialised to expect good times and cheer from family and social gatherings,” explains Dr Lloyd Sederer, psychiatrist and former Chief Medical Officer of New York state’s Office of Mental Health. “Sadness and anxiety are frequent feelings during the holidays. Running from them will only worsen your distress” [3].
The sources of this seasonal distress are manifold. Financial pressures loom large, with parents worrying about affording gifts and meals. Family gatherings, whilst ostensibly celebratory, can resurrect old wounds and uncomfortable dynamics. The holidays amplify our awareness of loss, reminding us of who isn’t at the table this year. Meanwhile, world events continue to intrude, creating tension that follows us from the workplace water cooler to the family dining table [4].
Time Off
Ironically, even the respite that holidays promise can become a source of stress. Research examining workers in the US found that 40% of men and 46% of women cited the “mountain of work” they’d return to as a major reason for not using their holiday days [5]. This pre- and post-holiday anxiety creates a vicious cycle in which we’re simultaneously too stressed to take time off, yet desperately need the break.
The problem extends beyond anticipation. A study of Dutch holidaymakers revealed that vacationers are no happier than non-vacationers after a break, unless they had “very relaxed” trips [6]. The key barrier? Working during time meant for leisure. Data from the 2018 American Time Use survey indicates that 30% of full-time employees report working weekends and holidays [7].
Laura Giurge and Kaitlin Woolley’s research in Harvard Business Review finds that working during designated time off undermines intrinsic motivation, i.e. the sense that work is interesting, enjoyable, and meaningful. When people engage in work during time they categorise as leisure, they experience conflict between their expectations and reality, making their work feel less engaging [8]. “When you’ve made the decision to leave work fully behind,” they note, “your mind and body are much more likely to achieve the kind of relaxation you deserve” [9].
Planning for Peace
The groundwork for surviving the holidays begins well before any celebration. “Much of the discipline of leadership applies equally to holidays,” observes Richard Boston, psychologist and author of The Boss Factor. “Be clear on the purpose of your time off — for me it is time for family and distance from work for mental and physical recovery. Clarity of purpose helps set boundaries for yourself and others” [10].
Tristan Gribbin, a meditation coach, recommends building relaxation into your routine before the holiday rush intensifies. “You don’t have to put off letting go of stress until vacation,” she advises. Even a few minutes of daily meditation, visualising the positive feeling you want to gain during your break, can help you maintain calm as demands pile up [11].
Prioritisation becomes essential. Start at least two weeks before a week-long break (or a month before a fortnight away) by creating a list of tasks that absolutely must be completed. Show it to your manager for feedback, then use this mutually agreed-upon list to guide your daily work. Other tasks and opportunities will inevitably arise, but unless they’re essential, stick to your priorities [12].
Equally critical is communication. Make certain your boss, colleagues, and clients know your dates well in advance. “Tell them you plan to unplug during vacation,” Gribbin suggests. “This helps put the onus on them to bring you anything essential before you go” [13]. Far from damaging professional relationships, this clarity typically impresses people with your commitment.
For family gatherings, the same principle of advance communication applies. TJ Leonard, chief executive of Storyblocks, warns: “We get in trouble when we delude ourselves into thinking there is one ‘right’ way to take a vacation. Even the best laid vacation plans will go off the rails when expectations have not been communicated in advance” [14]. If you’re bringing a partner, don’t withhold information about potential family sensitivities or prejudices. Establish a code word or gesture to indicate when either of you becomes uncomfortable and needs to step away [15].
Going Away
Once the festivities begin, maintaining boundaries becomes paramount. For those who cannot completely disconnect, Sarah Jones Simmer, chief operating officer of Bumble, has refined a compromise: “I am much better if I can check in every morning for 30 minutes versus trying to totally shut down. I know I have a dedicated window coming and that makes it easier to unplug at other times” [16]. She also recommends staying active and blocking out half a day dedicated to catching up upon return.
Brooke Masters, the Financial Times’ comment and analysis editor, has discovered that, if going away for the holidays, immersion breaks the cycle of phone-checking. “I try to bring one addictive novel that I have been waiting to read. Then early in the holiday, I plunge right in and read hundreds of pages at a sitting until I am done. It makes me antisocial at the very beginning but helps break the cycle of checking my phone” [17].
Managing Family Dynamics
Perhaps no aspect of this particular holiday generates more anxiety than family gatherings. “Our families are the ones that install our ‘buttons,’ so therefore they know exactly how to push them,” observes Alana Kaufman, a New York psychotherapist. “One thing to keep in mind is that the buttons installed may be a product of a parent’s unresolved psychological issues. It is important to try to understand what feelings feel authentic to you and not take on others’ feelings” [18].
The key lies in preparation and self-awareness. Before any gathering, identify what behaviours or topics might trigger discomfort, then plan coping strategies. “When emotions arise among family members, triggering situations erupt, the goal is not to turn it off, the goal is to be able to ride it, to sit through it,” explains Holly Whitaker, chief executive of Tempest and author of “Quit Like a Woman.” “When we are able to do that, it allows us to evolve, to mature” [19].
Life coach Mark Fennell describes the phenomenon of “social expectation bias,” where we overestimate what others expect from us. “It leads to us massively overestimating what others expect from us. Add years of childhood conditioning, of keeping the peace and not rocking the boat; we live with this expectancy that we must love Christmas — otherwise, we are ‘failing'” [20].
Setting boundaries needn’t be confrontational. “You have a right to say ‘no’ if you want to,” Fennell advises. “Most people react better to clarity than to guessing what you really mean” [21]. He suggests practising simple but firm phrases: “I love that you thought of me, but I can’t commit to that this year,” or “I want this to be enjoyable, so I’m stepping away from this topic before it gets heated.”
When difficult moments do arise, body awareness becomes crucial. Neda Gould, clinical psychologist and director of the Johns Hopkins Mindfulness Program, recommends pausing to scan your body for tension. “Even in 10 seconds, we can pause, notice our senses and take a few deep breaths, and that signals to the brain and body that, ‘OK, there’s no danger right now'” [22].
Productivity
Tim Harford, writing in the Financial Times, identifies a pervasive trap: “The pressure to be productive is everywhere, even in time off. Once you’ve cleared your inbox, you can start ticking off the list of galleries in Paris, or Thai islands, or Great Novels To Read Before You Die” [23]. He warns against what writer Adam Gopnik called the “Causal Catastrophe”, which essentially means judging every action not in its own right, but by its long-term consequences.
“If everything is done as a means to something else, nothing is worthwhile in itself,” Harford observes. He recalls a conversation from Toni Morrison’s novel “Sula,” in which the protagonist declares, “I sure did live in this world.” When asked what she has to show for it, Sula simply responds: “Show? To who?” [24].
Harford’s insight extends to the post-holiday return. “There is a trap in waiting for the moment when all the decks are clear, everything is under control and the rest of life can begin. The trap is that such moments can only ever be fleeting. There is always more coming in” [25]. The goal isn’t to achieve perfect control, but to accept the messiness whilst maintaining perspective.
Survival Strategies
Beyond philosophical acceptance, specific tactics can ease holiday stress. Dr Marie Murray, consultant clinical psychologist, offers straightforward guidance: “Don’t overdo things. Keep expectations of yourself and others realistic. Don’t try to do everything perfectly. Cheerful chaos is better than angry perfection” [26].
She recommends practical measures: eat regularly, rest when tired, get fresh air daily, and avoid saying anything in anger. “Don’t catastrophise. Keep perspective, this is just a few days,” she reminds us. “Remind yourself how lonely life would be without your family no matter how different or odd, wonderful or embarrassing, fun or dull or annoying they may be” [27].
Karl Henry, fitness expert, emphasises the importance of vigorous exercise as a stress-reliever, alongside deep breathing techniques. “Take yourself into the bathroom and close the door. Now stand against the door with your shoulders pressed against it. Close your eyes. Focus on breathing from the pit of your stomach and inhaling for 10 seconds, now hold the breath for 10 seconds and then exhale for 10. Give five repeats” [28].
For those dreading social gatherings, Dr Sean Leonard, psychiatric nurse practitioner, suggests giving yourself a time limit. “If you’re not enjoying yourself after that time is up (around 30 to 45 minutes), give yourself permission to leave” [29]. The simple act of knowing you have an exit strategy can make attending less daunting.
Reframing
Perhaps the most powerful strategy involves cognitive reframing. When work intrudes during the holidays, Giurge and Woolley found that simply relabelling time as “work time” rather than “leisure time” helped people maintain their intrinsic motivation. Their research showed that telling people “People usually use weekends to catch up or get ahead with their work” helped them feel more interested and engaged in their work goals [30].
Upon returning from holiday, resist the urge to plunge immediately back into everything. “Take the first thirty minutes of your return to make a list of priorities,” Gribbin suggests. “You don’t have to arrive at work, plug back in, have tasks come cascading onto you and try to handle everything immediately” [31]. Search your inbox for key names and read those messages first, whilst marking mass mailings as read or deleting them.
The return journey matters as much as the holiday itself. Taylor Nicole Rogers, Financial Times labour and equality correspondent, has transformed her approach: “My paid-time-off experience was forever changed when I started adding an extra day off at home at the end of every trip. Weekend days do not count. Having that extra day to catch up on sleep after an overnight flight or complete household tasks takes the pressure off the transition back into work” [32].
Holiday Success
The most profound shift may be changing how we measure holiday success. “The best holiday I ever had was my honeymoon, in 2003,” Harford reflects. “It was that the holiday was enough, and we were enough for each other. There was no anxiety that we should be doing anything different” [33]. The wedding represented the completion of an enormous to-do list; the thank-you letters couldn’t be written until they returned. The decks really were clear, allowing them to simply enjoy the journey.
Dr Sederer’s advice captures this sentiment: “Follow your own compass, one whose true north is kindness, gratitude and caring for family, friends and others in need. We all have that ability in us — to be kind and just listen, and open up, so that someone else opens up. We can all do better at that” [34].
The holidays will never be perfect, and perhaps they shouldn’t be. The pressure to create flawless memories and demonstrate productivity even during downtime misses the point entirely. As Gerard Pearlberg, a UPS driver in the US who navigates peak December frenzy, puts it: “You’ve got to look at the bigger picture. You know, we made it one more year to see another Christmas, another holiday season, and you’ve got to feel good about it. We did it. We’re here” [35].
Sources
[5] https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-to-minimize-stress-before-during-and-after-your-vacation
[6] https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-to-minimize-stress-before-during-and-after-your-vacation
[7] https://www.harvardbusiness.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/HBR_dont-work-on-vacation-seriously.pdf
[8] https://www.harvardbusiness.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/HBR_dont-work-on-vacation-seriously.pdf
[9] https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-to-minimize-stress-before-during-and-after-your-vacation
[10] https://www.ft.com/content/ef49d640-6984-11e8-b6eb-4acfcfb08c11
[11] https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-to-minimize-stress-before-during-and-after-your-vacation
[12] https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-to-minimize-stress-before-during-and-after-your-vacation
[13] https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-to-minimize-stress-before-during-and-after-your-vacation
[14] https://www.ft.com/content/ef49d640-6984-11e8-b6eb-4acfcfb08c11
[15] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/23/style/self-care/holiday-mental-health-tips.html
[16] https://www.ft.com/content/ef49d640-6984-11e8-b6eb-4acfcfb08c11
[17] https://www.ft.com/content/ef49d640-6984-11e8-b6eb-4acfcfb08c11
[18] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/23/style/self-care/holiday-mental-health-tips.html
[19] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/23/style/self-care/holiday-mental-health-tips.html
[22] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/23/style/self-care/holiday-mental-health-tips.html
[23] https://www.ft.com/content/06ffe40d-fdcc-4be8-b536-810cedce7ed1
[24] https://www.ft.com/content/06ffe40d-fdcc-4be8-b536-810cedce7ed1
[25] https://www.ft.com/content/06ffe40d-fdcc-4be8-b536-810cedce7ed1
[30] https://www.harvardbusiness.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/HBR_dont-work-on-vacation-seriously.pdf
[31] https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-to-minimize-stress-before-during-and-after-your-vacation
[32] https://www.ft.com/content/ef49d640-6984-11e8-b6eb-4acfcfb08c11
[33] https://www.ft.com/content/06ffe40d-fdcc-4be8-b536-810cedce7ed1
[35] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/08/well/mind/holiday-stress-relief.html
Ireland’s employment landscape is undergoing a profound transformation. Whilst professional job vacancies rose by 10% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter [1], beneath this headline figure lies a more complex story of structural shifts, technological disruption, and growing economic caution that will fundamentally reshape how Irish organisations compete for talent and structure their workforces.
Employers are hiring, yet new job creation fell by nearly 20% in the first three months of 2025 compared to the same period the previous year [2]. With an economy in transition, aggregate employment growth masks significant sectoral rebalancing and mounting concerns about long-term sustainability.
The silent slowdown
Fresh data from the Central Statistics Office confirms what accountant Neil Hughes of Azets Ireland has termed a “silent slowdown” [3]. Between January and March 2025, just 100,856 new jobs were recorded, a drop of 24,915 compared to the first quarter of 2024 [4]. Simultaneously, hiring activity slowed by 27.8%, whilst job losses rose to 133,538, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year [5].
Perhaps most telling is the behaviour of workers themselves. The CSO data shows that 2.56 million people stayed in their existing employment in the second quarter, the highest figure in the series [6]. This suggests a workforce increasingly focused on stability rather than opportunity, a marked departure from the buoyant job-switching culture that characterised the post-pandemic boom.
Indeed, job churn, which tracks workforce movement beyond general employment growth or decline, stood at 313,274 in the first quarter, down 1.8% compared to the same period in 2024 [7]. The job churn rate slipped to 11.1%, 0.3 percentage points lower than a year earlier [8]. For organisations, this presents both challenge and opportunity. Whilst employee retention may improve, the reduced movement of talent across the economy could constrain innovation and limit access to new skills.
Dublin’s divergent trajectory
Dublin’s underperformance relative to the rest of Ireland represents one of the most significant shifts in the employment landscape. Job postings in the capital sit 13% below their pre-pandemic baseline, making Dublin the country’s only major hub with postings below pre-pandemic levels [9]. This stands in stark contrast to counties like Kildare, where postings are 29% above their pre-pandemic baseline [10].
Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Indeed, attributes Dublin’s lag to its concentration of “certain white collar occupations”, particularly in technology, which have “softened lately” [11]. The capital’s greater exposure to the tech industry, which has been shedding jobs and experiencing some of the biggest declines in postings, has created a structural disadvantage as the sector adjusts to new economic realities [12].
Yet this geographic rebalancing may prove beneficial in the longer term. Remote and hybrid work arrangements now feature in nearly 17% of national postings, more than four times higher than pre-pandemic levels [13]. This persistence of flexible working models, despite high-profile return-to-office mandates from major employers, suggests firms are “increasingly open” to hiring outside Dublin [14]. The constrained housing market in the capital further reinforces this trend, with remote hiring offering companies favour with harder-to-obtain candidates, especially where talent pools remain tight [15].
The AI impact
Artificial intelligence is emerging as the defining force reshaping Ireland’s professional employment landscape. The impact is most visible in accountancy and finance, where Morgan McKinley’s Trayc Keevans notes that companies are “increasingly leveraging AI capabilities to automate routine tasks such as accounts payable, accounts receivable, credit control, and payroll” [16]. This shift is creating high demand for professionals skilled in tools like SQL and Power BI, particularly in commercial finance roles such as business partners and financial analysts [17].
However, the transformation brings significant risks. A notable trend driven by automation is the reduction in graduate-level hiring by major firms, raising concerns about potential shortages of experienced mid-level professionals that could impact future business operations and growth [18]. The accounting sector’s talent pipeline may be fundamentally disrupted if entry-level positions continue to disappear, creating a hollowed-out profession unable to develop the next generation of senior practitioners.
The adoption of AI tools among Irish workers has grown by 27% in the past year, according to Microsoft’s Work Trend Index for 2025 [19]. More than half of workers see AI skills as a career catalyst, with 41% saying it helps them work smarter and a similar proportion believing it will accelerate their careers [20]. Yet access remains deeply unequal; 91% of board-level executives report using AI regularly compared to just 39% of non-managerial staff [21].
This digital divide extends across demographic lines. Just 47% of female workers report using AI tools compared with 63% of men, whilst only 55% of Gen Z staff use AI at work, lower than younger millennials (62%), older millennials (59%), and Gen X workers (47%) [22]. For organisations, this represents both a risk and an opportunity. Companies that provide comprehensive AI training across all levels of the workforce will develop significant competitive advantages, whilst those that fail to democratise access to these tools risk exacerbating existing inequalities and limiting innovation.
Sectoral winners and losers
The impact of technological change and economic uncertainty varies dramatically across sectors. Life sciences and engineering roles remain stable, driven largely by increased automation and compliance requirements [23]. Automation manufacturing has grown significantly, with a 20% increase since the previous year, leading to strong demand for specialised automation engineers [24].
Financial services have maintained consistent hiring across funds, insurance, and banking sectors, with employers particularly focused on roles requiring compliance expertise, including anti-money laundering and Know Your Customer functions [25]. Relationship management positions also remain highly sought after due to the ongoing focus on client retention and service excellence [26].
By contrast, the technology sector presents a more nuanced picture. Whilst recruitment remains robust for cybersecurity specialists, driven by heightened regulatory requirements such as NIS2 and DORA, contract hiring among larger multinational firms has slowed, influenced by tighter cost controls prompting a shift towards permanent positions or offshore staffing solutions [27]. Data from Indeed shows IT operations and helpdesk postings down almost 30% from February 2020 levels [28].
The construction sector faces perhaps the most acute challenges, with persistent shortages of skilled professionals, especially quantity surveyors and project planners [29]. These gaps are amplified by Ireland’s severe housing shortage, procurement bottlenecks, and intensified competition from higher-paying European markets, which continue to attract Irish talent abroad [30].
Talent inflow
Ireland’s reputation as a stable, open economy is fuelling a wave of international talent inflows, particularly from the United States and the Middle East. Matt Fitzpatrick, Executive Director at Marks Sattin Ireland, notes that “there’s been a noticeable rise in interest from the Middle East over the past year, and recently we’ve seen a sharp uptick in U.S. candidates, some leveraging Irish ancestry to make the move” [31].
For Marks Sattin, overseas candidates, including Irish returners, made up over 40% of placements in Ireland in early 2025 [32]. This represents a strategic response to global volatility, with Ireland increasingly perceived as a geopolitical safe haven. However, international interest in Irish jobs dropped slightly between January and April 2025 to 12.3%, down from 14.8% in December 2024, according to Indeed data [33].
The influx creates challenges around remuneration. Ireland’s salary levels remain modest compared to major financial hubs like London or New York, aligning more closely with Amsterdam in terms of compensation [34]. Other European nations such as Germany, Belgium, and Luxembourg often present more generous salary offers without necessarily balancing this with lower tax burdens or living costs [35]. For new international entrants, the Irish market poses a necessary trade-off between earnings and overall lifestyle.
Yet Ireland’s attractiveness extends beyond pay. The country boasts a high standard of living, accessible healthcare, excellent schools, and a progressive work culture. The tight labour market continues to support robust wage growth, with year-on-year posted wage growth measured at 4.6% in December 2024, decently above the euro area average of 3.3% [36]. With Irish inflation falling to 1% or less in recent months, workers are seeing substantial real-terms pay growth [37].
Strategic imperatives
The employment landscape facing Irish organisations demands fundamental shifts in strategy. The low level of alignment between HR priorities (which remain focused on talent management, leadership development, and employee experience) and broader organisational priorities around cost management, digitalisation, and productivity suggests a concerning disconnect. As the CIPD’s HR Practices in Ireland report notes, “the profession needs to invest more in looking into the business and to better connect its work with key business challenges” [38].
Four in five HR professionals reported an increase in the impact of their profession in the past 12 months [39]. Yet areas where fewer perceive that the profession brings added value include sustainability (77%) and championing a people-centred approach to technology and AI (63%) [40]. The response to how HR champions a people-centred approach to technology has fluctuated significantly, from 77% in 2023, declining to 53% in 2024, and rising to 63% in 2025 [41]. This volatility suggests the profession is still finding its footing in navigating technological transformation.
Organisations must also grapple with profound shifts in employee expectations and behaviour. A record 38% of Irish workers moved roles in 2025, up from 23% the previous year and 19% in 2023 [42]. This marks Ireland’s most volatile labour market in three years, coinciding with a 13% fall in workplace happiness to 65% [43]. Whilst burnout levels have improved to a three-year low of 39%, 30% of workers plan to look for more flexibility in the coming year [44].
The persistence of remote and hybrid work, despite organisational efforts to increase office attendance, reflects this demand for flexibility. Around 2.6% of all searches for Irish job postings contained remote or hybrid keywords as of the end of December 2024, similar to levels prevailing since 2022 and up around tenfold on pre-pandemic levels [45]. Professional and tech categories including arts and entertainment (50%), media and communications (43%), insurance (43%), and software development (41%) show the highest shares of remote and hybrid postings [46].
Moving forward
The Irish labour market has entered a period of profound uncertainty. The pharmaceutical industry, a pillar of Ireland’s tax base, faces possible headwinds from proposed Trump tariffs, with significant implications for both employment and fiscal stability. More broadly, given Ireland’s trade dependency and reliance on the multinational sector, any changes to US trade or tax policies could potentially harm the Irish economy.
Yet the fundamentals remain strong. The employment rate for people aged 15-64 years reached 74.7% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 73.8% a year earlier [47]. The number of people in employment rose by 89,900 or 3.3% to 2,794,100 [48]. The unemployment rate stood at 4.3%, not far from the 4% rate generally considered nearing full employment in Ireland [49].
For organisational leaders, the challenge is navigating this complex landscape whilst building resilient, adaptable workforces. This requires moving beyond traditional approaches to talent management and embracing more fundamental questions about how work is structured, where it is performed, and what skills will prove essential. The organisations that thrive will be those that democratise access to AI tools, embrace geographic flexibility, invest in comprehensive upskilling programmes, and maintain the agility to respond to continued volatility.
Sources
[28] https://www.hiringlab.org/uk/blog/2025/01/28/indeed-2025-ireland-jobs-and-hiring-trends-report/
[31] https://www.markssattin.co.uk/general/2025-8/ireland-s-talent-boom
[32] https://www.markssattin.co.uk/general/2025-8/ireland-s-talent-boom
[34] https://www.markssattin.co.uk/general/2025-8/ireland-s-talent-boom
[35] https://www.markssattin.co.uk/general/2025-8/ireland-s-talent-boom
[36] https://www.hiringlab.org/uk/blog/2025/01/28/indeed-2025-ireland-jobs-and-hiring-trends-report/
[37] https://www.hiringlab.org/uk/blog/2025/01/28/indeed-2025-ireland-jobs-and-hiring-trends-report/
[45] https://www.hiringlab.org/uk/blog/2025/01/28/indeed-2025-ireland-jobs-and-hiring-trends-report/
[46] https://www.hiringlab.org/uk/blog/2025/01/28/indeed-2025-ireland-jobs-and-hiring-trends-report/
[47] https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-lfs/labourforcesurveyquarter12025/keyfindings/
[48] https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-lfs/labourforcesurveyquarter12025/keyfindings/
[49] https://www.hiringlab.org/uk/blog/2025/01/28/indeed-2025-ireland-jobs-and-hiring-trends-report/
When Rachel Reeves delivered her second budget as UK chancellor on Wednesday, 26 November, the reverberations were felt far beyond Westminster. For Ireland, the implications of Reeves’ fiscal choices strike at the heart of shared economic ecosystems, from Northern Ireland’s family farms to Dublin’s financial services sector, and from betting shops in border towns to the calculations of multinational corporations weighing where to base their European operations.
The budget arrived amid what observers have characterised as one of the most chaotic periods in recent British political memory. As Dominic McGrath noted in The Business Post, “the lead-up saw every twist, turn and tax policy leaked or briefed out, while a bait-and-switch approach to an income tax U-turn left bond markets flustered and allies confused” [1]. The resulting package — £26 billion in tax increases, though less than the feared £40 billion — represents not merely a set of fiscal adjustments but a fundamental recalibration of the UK’s economic direction with profound cross-border consequences.
Northern Ireland
For Northern Ireland, the budget’s impact feels particularly acute. Chartered Accountants Ireland, representing over 5,500 members in the region, has voiced deep concern about proposed changes to agricultural property relief and business property relief, set to take effect in April 2026. As Leontia Doran, UK Tax Manager with the organisation, explained: “These changes are disappointing and particularly damaging in Northern Ireland where family-owned businesses and farms are the heartbeat of the economy. Eighty-four per cent of businesses here are either family owned or managed, and they support over 325,000 jobs.” [2]
The proposed changes have already sent shockwaves through Northern Ireland’s farming community. Doran argues that “a carve-out is needed to exempt genuine farming activity and protect family-owned businesses in NI,” suggesting the government could have included a threshold to continue providing smaller farms and businesses with full relief if their farming or business assets comprise a minimum proportion of their overall estate [3]. The absence of such provisions, combined with a lack of transitional measures to protect older taxpayers, threatens to fundamentally alter the economic landscape of a region where family enterprises form the bedrock of employment and community life.
Both sides of the border
Beyond the farm gate, Reeves’ decision to freeze income tax and National Insurance Contributions thresholds until 2031 presents another concern for workers on both sides of the border. This continuation of the freeze, Doran noted, “is having an ever-increasing effect on people’s net after tax income and is expected to bring many more taxpayers into the higher rate tax bracket by 2030/31, a phenomenon known as ‘fiscal drag'” [4]. The policy risks creating a stagnant labour market whilst reducing household spending power, effects that will inevitably spill over into cross-border commerce and consumer behaviour.
Perhaps most significantly for Ireland’s strategic interests, Chartered Accountants Ireland has been campaigning for a reduced rate of corporation tax in Northern Ireland, more closely aligned with rates across the rest of the island. As Doran concluded: “A reduction in this rate would in the longer run ultimately increase tax take by driving the creation of better jobs and incentivising business growth. Add to this higher value FDI and the gains for Northern Ireland would set a real benchmark for what can be achieved with ambitious tax policies” [5]. The budget’s silence on this issue represents a missed opportunity to unlock the region’s potential, particularly its unique dual market access.
The business community’s response to the budget reveals the complex calculus facing firms operating across both jurisdictions. Noel McDonald and Donata Berger, founders of organic food company Biona, articulated a fundamental tension in how businesses are perceived and treated. McDonald argued: “The message that I would like to see coming out from government is that business is the only organisation in the country, in the economy, that generates wealth. Everything else is about spending the wealth, but the business is the only thing that generates wealth.” [6]
Berger pointed to the practical consequences of Labour’s approach: “This National Insurance contribution is massive for supermarkets. What does it lead to? People are cutting down on staff. They’re rationalising. Automation will be driven hugely. They should be doing more to support businesses. I think punishing businesses to the point that they have to shut down, and then you have a lot of people unemployed, that doesn’t move the country forward.” [7]
Irish companies with UK ops
For Ireland-headquartered firms with significant UK operations, the budget presented a mixed picture. Dalton Philips, chief executive of Greencore, struck a relatively sanguine note despite acknowledging challenges: “We’ve dealt with heavy levels of inflation. If you think through 2022/23 the level of inflation was materially greater than what we’re having to face now, and we were able to manage through that. We’ve got structural tailwinds in our business” [8]. His confidence rests on trends towards premiumisation, convenience, and eating in, all underpinned by UK population growth of approximately one per cent annually.
Yet the cumulative burden of fiscal tightening cannot be dismissed. Neil Hosty, chief executive of Fexco, acknowledged: “We’ve experienced it as an employer, for sure, we try to support our employees, to make sure that we’re keeping pace with wage inflation and trying to help them offset price inflation. National Insurance last year would be great example. And sometimes you just have to absorb those” [9]. His longer-term optimism about Britain’s entrepreneurial spirit cannot entirely mask the short-term pain his comments reveal.
Betting big?
The gambling sector, dominated by Irish firms like Flutter and BoyleSports, faced particularly sharp changes. From April 2026, remote gaming duty will increase from 21 per cent to 40 per cent, whilst a new tax rate of 25 per cent for general bets made remotely will come into force in April 2027 [10]. Flutter announced the changes would hit adjusted earnings by $860 million over two years, though the company believes it can mitigate costs and potentially increase market share as smaller competitors struggle. [11]
BoyleSports chief executive Vlad Kaltenieks had previously warned that tax increases would create “a more difficult environment” for the firm’s £100 million investment in new retail stores across Britain [12]. His concerns proved partially justified, though the decision to spare high-street bookmakers from additional levies offered some relief. Kevin Harrington, Flutter’s chief executive for UK and Ireland, called the changes “very disappointing,” warning they would “hand a big win to illegal, unlicensed gambling operators who will become more competitive overnight.” [13]
Grand narrative
From a strategic perspective, Cillian Molloy, policy manager at the British Irish Chamber of Commerce, articulated what many business leaders were thinking: “For that partnership to flourish, the chamber believes the budget must prioritise policies that restore economic stability, promote business confidence, and deepen trading links with our nearest neighbours and our largest market, the European Union. Businesses on both sides of the Irish Sea need predictable regulatory and tax frameworks.” [14]
McGrath’s assessment of the budget itself was measured but pointed: “Rather than a Mario Draghi-esque ‘whatever it takes’ moment for Reeves, it was hard to escape a sense it came closer to ‘will this do?'” [15] He noted that despite creating a £22 billion fiscal buffer, “UK finances still remain highly susceptible to economic shocks,” with borrowing remaining high for the next three years and back-loaded tax rises and spending curbs only arriving at the end of the decade — conveniently timed around the next election. [16]
Advantage Ireland
For Ireland, one unexpected silver lining emerged from Britain’s fiscal troubles. Alan Murray, a tax partner at Forvis Mazars, suggested that “Ireland now has a ‘massive advantage’ over the UK in attracting ultra-high-net-worth individuals” following Keir Starmer’s decision to scrap the UK’s non-dom regime [17]. However, Murray warned that chronic infrastructure problems — housing shortages, inadequate transport links, school capacity — prevent Ireland from capitalising on this opportunity. As he put it: “If you leave the city centre of Dublin at 4pm on a Friday, and you try and get to Dublin Airport, good luck to you.” [18]
Implications
The broader implications of Reeves’ budget extend beyond immediate fiscal impacts. Elliott Jordan-Doak, a senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, offered a sobering assessment: “Despite the positive spin from the chancellor today, the fiscal outlook remains perilous. The path of least resistance will continue to be to borrow more in the short-term and backload corrective action, until the bond market forces a change. Accordingly, we expect gilt yields to remain elevated.” [19]
For Irish business leaders and policymakers watching from across the Irish Sea, the message is that Britain’s economic instability represents both challenge and opportunity. The challenge lies in navigating the immediate impacts of tax rises, threshold freezes, and sectoral levies on firms operating in both markets. The opportunity lies in positioning Ireland as a stable, attractive alternative for investment and talent, if only the infrastructure can be put in place to support it.
As McGrath concluded, “it’s hard not to conclude that Reeves may only have pushed her problems onto the next budget” [20]. For Ireland, that means continued uncertainty about its largest trading partner’s direction, ongoing concerns about Northern Ireland’s economic trajectory, and difficult questions about how best to press home competitive advantages whilst maintaining the close bilateral relationship that has historically served both nations well. In an interconnected economy, no budget is truly domestic, and Britain’s fiscal choices will continue to shape Ireland’s economic landscape.
Sources
[2] https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/chartered-accountants-ireland-reacts-to-uk-budget-2025
[3] https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/chartered-accountants-ireland-reacts-to-uk-budget-2025
[4] https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/chartered-accountants-ireland-reacts-to-uk-budget-2025
[5] https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/chartered-accountants-ireland-reacts-to-uk-budget-2025
[11] https://www.businesspost.ie/markets/flutter-uk-gambling-tax-will-cost-us-860-million/
[13] https://www.businesspost.ie/markets/flutter-uk-gambling-tax-will-cost-us-860-million/
The autumn leaves have barely finished falling when the first tinsel appears in shop windows, and suddenly we’re hurtling toward December 25th at alarming speed. For most of us, this creates a peculiar cognitive dissonance. Our calendars fill with deadlines and year-end deliverables whilst our minds drift toward holiday plans, gift lists, and the promise of time off. All the while we’re left wondering how we can navigate this uniquely challenging period without compromising our professional responsibilities or our sanity.
The phenomenon of the pre-Christmas productivity slump is well documented. Research by the HR analytics group Peakon found that up to 57 per cent of British workers admitted they had mentally checked out by the third week of December, with some engaging in online shopping, others planning Christmas Day festivities, and nearly 20 per cent leaving work earlier than usual [1]. What’s particularly striking is that younger workers tend to disengage even earlier. More than a third of those aged between 18 and 34 reported festive distractions cutting their productivity by mid-December [2].
This isn’t merely a British affliction. In the United States, most employees expected to lose focus at work by 16 December, whilst German workers followed a day or so later [3]. The pattern is clear, as the year draws to a close, our collective attention span contracts, regardless of how many urgent emails populate our inboxes. In Ireland, things are no different.
Pressures
What makes the pre-Christmas period particularly vexing is that it combines multiple sources of stress into a perfect storm of distraction. As Benjamin Laker, a university professor who writes about leadership, observed in Forbes, “this time of year is often laden with social commitments, family responsibilities, and the general hustle and bustle that comes with preparing for the holidays” [4]. These aren’t trivial distractions that can be dismissed with willpower alone. They represent legitimate demands on our time, energy, and emotional resources.
The workplace itself often contributes to the chaos. Many organisations experience what Jeff Maggs of Brunner agency described as the “December dip” [5], a predictable downturn in productivity that coincides with reduced working hours, employees taking annual leave, and the general anticipation of the holiday break. For some industries, however, December brings the opposite problem of an increase in workload as everyone scrambles to complete projects before the year ends. Suddenly workers must accomplish the same amount (or more) in less time, whilst simultaneously managing heightened personal obligations.
The financial pressures of the season compound these difficulties. Gift-buying, travel arrangements, and the expectation of hosting or attending multiple social events all require resources that may already be stretched thin. Economic worries have made recent holiday seasons particularly stressful for many people [6]. When your budget is already under strain, the pressure to maintain festive appearances whilst meeting professional obligations becomes considerably more acute.
Peak performance myths
Perhaps the first step toward managing this period effectively is abandoning the fiction that we can maintain peak productivity throughout December whilst simultaneously embracing the festive season. The reality is that something has to give, and acknowledging this is more pragmatic than defeatist.
Strategic planning becomes essential. Rather than attempting to power through with sheer determination, successful navigation of the pre-Christmas period requires what Laker described as “a balance of good planning, effective time management, and self-care” [7]. This means establishing clear and realistic goals for the holiday season, understanding your actual capacity rather than your aspirational one, and setting achievable objectives that account for the genuine distractions you’ll face.
Breaking larger goals into smaller, manageable tasks proves particularly valuable during this period. Laker explained that this approach “makes the larger goal seem less daunting and allows for a sense of accomplishment as each smaller task is completed” [8]. When your attention span is fractured by competing demands, the ability to point to concrete progress, however modest, becomes psychologically crucial.
Time management tools can be particularly useful in December. Calendars and to-do lists help organise your time efficiently, but the key is prioritising ruthlessly based on importance and deadlines. As Laker advised, “remember, not everything needs to be done immediately” [9]. The Pomodoro Technique, which involves working in focused bursts followed by short breaks, can be especially effective when your concentration is under siege from festive distractions.
Setting boundaries
One of the most challenging aspects of the pre-Christmas period is managing the boundary between work and personal life, which becomes peculiarly porous at this time of year. The expectation to be simultaneously productive at work and fully engaged with holiday preparations creates what amounts to a double shift for many of us.
Setting clear boundaries requires communication with both family and colleagues. Laker noted it’s “essential to communicate your availability to family and colleagues, making it clear when you will be working and when you will be available for holiday activities” [10]. This clear demarcation helps manage expectations and reduces the guilt that often accompanies the attempt to juggle work and personal commitments.
For many professionals, learning to say no becomes particularly important in December. Nedra Glover Tawwab, a licensed therapist and author of Drama Free: A Guide to Managing Unhealthy Family Relationships, suggested three approaches. First, you can simply say “No,” because it’s a complete sentence. Second, you can say “No, not right now” and suggest a different timeline. Or, finally, you can say “I can’t do this, but I can do that” [11]. The key is recognising that declining invitations or requests doesn’t make you a Grinch, it just makes you someone who understands their own limitations.
This extends to workplace social events as well. Whilst office Christmas parties can be valuable for team morale when done thoughtfully, they represent yet another demand on already overstretched schedules. Noel Cunningham, a presenter and etiquette expert, recommends “not putting yourself under so much pressure. You are not going to lose good friends or family because you didn’t go for drinks” [12]. If you’re anxious about these gatherings, arriving early can actually make them more manageable. Priya Parker, author of The Art of Gathering: How We Meet and Why It Matters, explained that going early is counterintuitive but effective “because there will be fewer people, and you can have more focused conversations” [13].
Environment
Physical adjustments to your work environment can significantly impact your ability to maintain focus during the festive season. For those working from home, establishing a dedicated workspace away from holiday chaos proves invaluable. Laker suggested this might mean “converting a quiet corner of your living room into a temporary office, equipped with a comfortable chair, adequate lighting, and minimal distractions” [14].
For office workers, smaller interventions can make a substantial difference. Wearing noise-cancelling headphones can help maintain focus and productivity amidst the festive atmosphere by filtering out chatter and holiday music [15]. These tools become particularly useful during times when the office environment grows unusually loud, allowing concentration on tasks without disturbance from surrounding noise.
Some organisations have begun to acknowledge the reality of the December productivity challenge by adapting their expectations. Kevin Winfield, an associate director at Jargon PR agency, observed that “for many of our clients, their industries tend to slow down at this time of year and, especially since the pandemic, many businesses have embraced the need to shut down over the festive period to give their teams time off” [16]. This recognition that fighting against the tide of festive distraction may be less effective than working with it represents a pragmatic approach to an enduring challenge.
Rest
Whilst the pre-Christmas period demands heightened productivity in compressed timeframes, it simultaneously requires increased attention to self-care. The festive period, whilst often joyful, frequently becomes a source of stress, and neglecting personal wellbeing creates a direct path to burnout. Laker noted “it’s important to ensure that you are getting enough sleep, as a well-rested mind is more efficient and less prone to stress” [17].
The irritating irony is that at precisely the moment when we feel we can least afford to rest, rest becomes most essential. The solution lies in what might be called strategic restoration, which is to say deliberately building in moments of recovery rather than waiting for complete collapse. This might mean allocating time each evening for activities that genuinely relax and rejuvenate, whether that’s reading, meditation, or engaging in a hobby that brings joy [18].
Physical activity can be especially useful, not only for stress relief but also for maintaining overall health and productivity. Laker says “this might mean taking a brisk walk in the morning, practicing yoga, or doing a quick home workout” [19]. These activities help manage stress whilst simultaneously boosting the energy levels needed to navigate both professional and personal demands.
Research by Neathouse Partners found that more than 50 per cent of employees say they feel stressed at work in the run-up to Christmas [20]. The time constraints in the workplace are a major reason for this, as some workers feel there aren’t enough hours in the day to complete all their tasks before the holiday. When employees feel under pressure, they may be less productive or produce inaccurate work, which can impact the company directly.
Perhaps most importantly, we need to cultivate what psychoanalyst Josh Cohen described as the capacity for “aimlessness, for letting the mind wander without specific goal or purpose” [21]. In a season characterised by relentless demands and endless to-do lists, creating space for genuine rest, not merely switching from work tasks to personal tasks, becomes an act of self-preservation. Cohen argues that gratuitousness is “the secret of pleasure: doing something for the scandalous motive of just wanting to” [22]. Whether it’s painting, writing, singing, or simply staring out the window, these purposeless activities invite us to bend and break the rules of productivity that govern our working lives.
Nutrition and energy
The temptation to abandon normal nutritional habits during December is powerful, but a month of indulgence can wreak havoc on productivity. As Rebecca Clarke noted in HR Review, whilst having truffles and mince pies for breakfast “might be ok for a day or two, a whole month of indulgence will play havoc on your productivity not to mention your waistline” [23]. The advice to avoid excessive sugar consumption is particularly relevan. Too much blood sugar can result in a low mood and short attention span, exactly what you should avoid at work.
Research shows that blood sugar highs and lows can lead to reduced focus and a more reactive than proactive day [24]. Sticking to healthy snacks such as fruit and nuts during the day provides a source of longer-lasting energy to keep you fuelled and help prevent lulls in productivity [25].
Social obligations
The social calendar expands dramatically in December, creating what many experience as an obligation to squeeze in as much socialising as possible before the year ends. Dr John Francis Leader, honorary secretary of the Psychological Society of Ireland, explained there are psychological factors at play: “It’s a psychological thing about deadlines and the end of the year, and also the idea that Christmas is about coming together” [26].
This rush to see everyone can become overwhelming. Dr Leader advised taking an intentional approach: “Be proactive instead of reactive when the messages come in. There is no air traffic control coordinating all the flights coming in…ahead of Christmas, see if you can have some of those connections so all the flights are not landing at once” [27]. He also suggested asking yourself honest questions about who you really want to see, because there are only so many hours in the day, and you have to prioritise.
Cunningham had similar advice, recommending that people push catch-ups into January and February: “Look to January and February –– dreary, grey wintery months. Give yourselves something to look forward to” [28].
Merry Xmas
Ultimately, surviving the pre-Christmas period at work requires accepting that perfection is unattainable. You will be distracted. Some tasks will slip. Your productivity will likely dip, at least temporarily. The goal isn’t to prevent this entirely but to manage it gracefully whilst maintaining your wellbeing and professional relationships.
Sources
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/77712597-2b71-46ac-9d06-a6566d6b16fc
[2] https://www.ft.com/content/77712597-2b71-46ac-9d06-a6566d6b16fc
[3] https://www.ft.com/content/77712597-2b71-46ac-9d06-a6566d6b16fc
[6] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/07/well/mind/holiday-stress.html
[13] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/07/well/mind/holiday-stress.html
[16] https://www.ft.com/content/77712597-2b71-46ac-9d06-a6566d6b16fc
[20] https://www.headspacegroup.co.uk/how-to-keep-your-mind-on-your-work-in-the-run-up-to-christmas/
[21] https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3
[22] https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3
[23] https://hrreview.co.uk/analysis/12-ways-keep-motivation-run-christmas/109509
[24] https://proactivepersonnel.net/how-to-stay-motivated-in-the-run-up-to-christmas
[25] https://hrreview.co.uk/analysis/12-ways-keep-motivation-run-christmas/109509
As the calendar edges towards its final pages, a familiar psychological shift takes hold in organisations and individuals alike. Attention drifts forward. Energy dissipates. The narrative quietly becomes one of endurance rather than intention. The final weeks of the year are treated as something to survive, rather than something to shape.
This reflex is understandable. The end of the year is dense with competing demands: deadlines, reviews, holidays, family obligations, and the low-level exhaustion that accumulates after months of sustained effort. Yet the evidence across performance psychology, leadership practice, and organisational behaviour suggests something counterintuitive. How the year ends matters disproportionately. Not because of volume of work, but because of meaning, memory, and momentum [1].
Finishing the year strong is not about squeezing more productivity from depleted reserves. It is about closing loops, clarifying narratives, and deliberately converting effort into learning and direction. As Erika Andersen writes in Forbes, the risk is not underperforming in December, but “ending the year feeling as though you’ve been flattened by the march of time” [2]. A strong finish, by contrast, leaves individuals cognitively lighter, emotionally clearer, and strategically better positioned for what comes next.
So, how do you ensure the final stretch of the year is not a neutral fade-out but rather a positive inflection point?
Small annoyances
Small, unresolved tasks exert a surprisingly large psychological toll. Andersen describes these as “small annoyances”. These are those minor repairs, unanswered questions, and lingering uncertainties that quietly drain attention [3]. Individually trivial, collectively they consume what behavioural scientists describe as mental bandwidth.
The implication for leaders and professionals is significant. Finishing strong begins not with ambition, but with subtraction. Clearing clutter, both physical and cognitive, creates an immediate sense of relief disproportionate to the effort involved [4]. This is not aesthetic minimalism but functional clarity. When environments are simplified, decision fatigue decreases and emotional energy returns.
The same principle applies to ambiguity. Unresolved expectations about deadlines, responsibilities, or relationships tend to persist because people fear the answers. Yet, as Andersen argues, “find out. You’ll feel clearer, and you’ll have a better sense of what to do next” [5]. Closure reduces rumination, and rumination is one of the primary enemies of momentum.
This emphasis on clearing space rather than adding pressure marks a crucial distinction between finishing strong and simply working harder.
Reflection, not self-punishment
A second pillar of a strong finish is structured reflection. Though, crucially, reflection without judgement. Athlete Mental Performance Coach Mandy Patterson’s approach is instructive precisely because it rejects the language of failure [6]. Goals, she argues, should not be treated as expectations, merely reference points.
Reviewing goals late in the year often triggers shame about how far behind we are, what we did not do, where we “should” be. Patterson explicitly warns against discarding goals simply because they feel uncomfortable or unfinished [7]. Instead, she reframes review as data collection. Where are you now? What worked? What did not?
This shift matters because judgement collapses motivation, while insight restores it. Patterson’s insistence on celebrating wins, including partial and incremental ones, is a mechanism for confidence renewal, not just motivational fluff. The dominant cultural script, particularly in high-performance environments, equates worth with constant striving. Patterson counters this with a growth mindset that says, “I am amazing today, but I work hard because I know I am capable of even more greatness tomorrow” [8].
Ending the year without acknowledging progress creates a distorted narrative in which effort disappears and only shortfall remains. That narrative carries forward.
Momentum
A key tool of progress for finishing the year strong lies in identifying patterns of success rather than relying on renewed motivation in January. Patterson urges readers to “mine for clues” to analyse what actually produced results, rather than what theory or habit suggests should have worked [9].
This approach aligns with broader research on habit formation and performance sustainability. When individuals repeat strategies that have already demonstrated effectiveness, they reduce friction and cognitive resistance. Conversely, repeatedly attempting approaches that have already failed, only this time with more intensity, reinforces a sense of inadequacy.
Letting go of what is not working is therefore not quitting but refinement. As Patterson notes, when people release ineffective methods, they also release the belief that success is inaccessible to them [10]. The result is not only better planning, but restored self-trust.
This is echoed in business contexts. Whether in individual performance reviews or organisational planning, the final months of the year offer a unique opportunity to double down on proven drivers while discarding unproductive complexity.
Narrative control
It’s pivotal to remember that finishing strong is not about last-minute heroics, but about owning the story of the year. As Forbes contributor Daisy Auger-Domínguez argues, “how you finish the year shapes how it’s remembered and where you’re headed next” [11]. In many organisations, decisions about promotion, responsibility, and trust are influenced less by raw output than by perceived impact. The distinction between effort and effect becomes critical.
Professionals who are recognised are not necessarily those who did the most, but those who can articulate what changed because of their work [12]. This requires translation, connecting tasks to outcomes, and outcomes to organisational priorities. It also requires reflection on trade-offs, explaining not only successes but the decisions behind them.
Importantly, this narrative work is more sense-making than self-promotion. When individuals fail to shape their own narrative, it is shaped for them, often reductively.
Feedback
A recurring performance insight is the danger of compressing reflection and feedback into a single annual moment. End-of-year reviews often become ineffective and sometimes outright harmful when they are treated as reveals rather than summaries [13].
CEO of Iksana Consulting Rita Ramakrishnan makes the argument that development feedback should be decoupled from compensation discussions speaks to a deeper principle, namely that psychological safety is incompatible with evaluative surprise [14]. When feedback arrives late, stripped of context, it feels punitive rather than developmental.
Finishing the year strong therefore involves documenting conversations already had, not introducing new critiques at the finish line. As Ramakrishnan notes, “if something in your review is news to the employee, you’ve already failed” [15].
From an organisational perspective, this reframes year-end not as judgement, but as consolidation.
Relationships
Beyond tasks and narratives, the relational aspect of year-end behaviour is equally vital. New York Times bestselling author Jon Acuff highlights generosity in both charitable giving and in attention and care [16]. Asking someone a simple question like “Is there anything you need?” as the year draws to an end signals recognition and value at a time when stress is high.
This relational framing matters because endings are remembered emotionally. The way colleagues, teams, and leaders make others feel in the final weeks of the year influences trust, loyalty, and engagement well into the next cycle.
Andersen similarly encourages reconnection, not as networking, but as presence [17]. Small, quiet moments of attention, whether at home or at work, counterbalance the performative busyness of the season. They also restore perspective.
Avoiding traps
Finishing strong does not mean refusing to rest. Sociologist Dr Tracy Brower’s analysis of year-end mistakes highlights the paradox that excellence often requires disengagement [18]. Procrastination, overpromising, and failure to communicate boundaries all undermine the ability to return refreshed.
Particularly damaging is the tendency to imagine a future self with unlimited capacity. Overcommitting in December creates a January burden that erodes motivation before momentum can build [19]. A strong finish therefore includes restraint, realistic planning, documentation, and intentional disengagement.
The objective is not to carry everything forward, but to leave a clean handover to yourself.
Direction, not drift
Across personal development, athletic coaching, and corporate leadership, a consensus emerges around one cldar principle: the year should end with intention. Reflection without direction leads to nostalgia. Direction without reflection leads to repetition.
Whether framed as asking where you to be a year from now, or as articulating how you wants to grow in the next cycle [20], the emphasis is on continuity. A strong finish creates a bridge, not a break. The year ahead will ask for trade-offs, resilience, and judgement. Those are not built in January. They are built in how we choose to end.
Sources
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2015/11/23/9-ways-to-finish-the-year-strong/
[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2015/11/23/9-ways-to-finish-the-year-strong/
[3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2015/11/23/9-ways-to-finish-the-year-strong/
[4] https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2015/11/23/9-ways-to-finish-the-year-strong/
[5] https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2015/11/23/9-ways-to-finish-the-year-strong/
[6] https://mgpcoach.com/finishtheyearstrong/
[7] https://mgpcoach.com/finishtheyearstrong/
[8] https://mgpcoach.com/finishtheyearstrong/
[9] https://mgpcoach.com/finishtheyearstrong/
[10] https://mgpcoach.com/finishtheyearstrong/
[16] https://www.worldvision.org/blog/finish-strong-5-simple-ways-end-year-high-note
[17] https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2015/11/23/9-ways-to-finish-the-year-strong/
Nearly two decades after planners imposed a 32 million passenger cap on Dublin Airport, Ireland finds itself wrestling with a self-inflicted constraint that threatens its economic connectivity just as global competition for air routes intensifies. The restriction, originally intended as a temporary measure to address road congestion during the Celtic Tiger era, has become the only passenger cap at any European airport, one that aviation journalist Eoghan Corry describes as “potentially in breach of international competition law, and certainly in breach of our national aviation and tourism policy” [1].
In 2007, when An Bord Pleanála granted planning permission for Dublin Airport’s second terminal, the M50 motorway was choking with just two lanes and a barrier toll system. The planning condition required the airport to reapply for permission when passenger numbers reached 32 million, a threshold that seemed comfortably distant with only 21 million passengers at the time [2]. The road problem was swiftly resolved through barrier-free tolling in August 2008 and a third lane by 2010, yet nobody thought to revisit the cap. When it was breached in 2019 with 32.6 million passengers, there was little fuss [3].
Then came the pandemic and a fundamental shift in political sentiment. “Immigration, globalisation, investment, embraced by the last generation, had become points of combat,” says Corry. “Connectivity had become a bogey of the pandemic, and some lobbyists made it their business to keep it that way” [4]. What began as a technical planning condition transformed into a lightning rod for broader anxieties about tourism, sustainability, and quality of life.
Consequences of inaction
Dublin Airport handles approximately 70 per cent of air traffic to and from the island, yet passenger growth has stagnated at 2.5 per cent in the first half of 2025, less than half the 4.5 per cent growth seen across European airports [5]. The DAA, which operates the airport, estimates that planning delays have cost a cumulative €500 million, costs that “will have to be recouped in higher fares from air passengers” [6]. For every million additional passengers not permitted, economist Jim Power calculates a loss of €1.4 billion to the Irish economy and 37,000 jobs [7].
More troubling is what happens at the negotiation table. At conferences such as Routes in Hong Kong, where Dublin once excelled, Corry notes that the airport is now “just a bystander, watching others pick up the business” [8]. Dublin is losing 17 routes next year as one charter operator withdraws completely. Long-haul routes to São Paulo and Bangkok are not even under discussion [9]. Valuable Heathrow slots that Aer Lingus held for 75 years have been reallocated to Spain [10].
Ireland is currently the only country among the top 20 European markets where seat capacity is forecast to decline in the first quarter of 2025, dropping 3.3 per cent whilst capacity in leading European countries will grow 6.5 per cent [11].
Geopolitics
The cap has attracted international attention that extends beyond commercial concerns. In July 2024, the US Department of Transportation warned that failure to lift the cap would harm competitiveness in transatlantic air travel [12]. Airlines for America (A4A), representing Delta, American Airlines, JetBlue and other aviation giants, has repeatedly called for action, arguing the cap breaches the EU-US Open Skies agreement [13].
The stakes escalated significantly in August 2025 when US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy issued a stark warning to European airports. Whilst his comments were directly aimed at noise restrictions at Schiphol Airport in the Netherlands, he made clear that the Trump administration was “monitoring” European countries that introduce “unjustified operational restrictions” in breach of aviation agreements [14]. When asked whether Ireland could face similar restrictions, a Department of Transportation spokesperson declined to rule out such action, stating only that “the Department is following the developments related to the passenger cap at Dublin Airport and supports a solution to increase or eliminate the cap to preserve the competitive landscape of the US-Ireland air transport market” [15].
DAA chief executive Kenny Jacobs told the Sunday Independent that the firm had warned the government “there’s a real danger of reciprocal action” [16]. The concern is that the US could invoke Article 21 of the 2007 EU-US Open Skies agreement, which commits both sides to “the shared goal of continuing to remove market access barriers” to “maximise benefits for consumers, airlines, labour, and communities on both sides of the Atlantic” [17]. For Aer Lingus, which has built a successful transatlantic hub business through Dublin based on efficient new Airbus aircraft, such restrictions could prove devastating.
Legislative solution
After months of pressure, Transport Minister Darragh O’Brien secured Cabinet approval in September 2025 to pursue legislation to remove the cap. O’Brien called it “a significant step forward” that would send “an important signal to the aviation sector” [18]. However, the process is expected to take until the end of 2026 [19].
This timeline has drawn sharp criticism. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary accused the government of “blatant inaction,” demanding legislation be passed before December. O’Leary insisted: “They have a 20-seat majority. Pass the legislation to scrap the cap. They promised legislation in January of this year. Nine months later, nothing is done” [20].
The legislative approach emerged after Attorney General Rossa Fanning disagreed with using a ministerial order as the mechanism, requiring the slower legislative process instead [21]. Parallel to legislation, the DAA pursued planning applications with Fingal County Council, but both remain stalled with the council requesting further information [22]. The relationship deteriorated to where Fingal complained to the Department of Transport about what the local authority characterised as “shocking” conduct by the DAA [23]. The DAA board’s November 2025 decision to drop the “no-build” application signals the primacy of the legislative solution [24].
Opposition
Support for lifting the cap is not universal. Dr Niamh Maher, a medical consultant and spokesperson for the St Margaret’s The Ward Residents Group, argues that “our health is being traded off for the benefit of the economy” [25]. She questions how legislation can override the planning process that exists to factor in environmental considerations [26].
The noise complaint data is curious. Dublin Airport receives substantial complaints, but from remarkably few individuals. Corry reports that five people lodged 46,197 complaints between them, representing two-thirds of all complaints. One individual alone lodged 23,000 complaints, 7,535 in a single month [27].
Environmental groups have mobilised against removal. Deirdre Duffy, chief executive of Friends of the Earth, argues that lifting the cap means “more flights and more pollution” without “credible strategies to cut aviation pollution” [28]. Critics counter that aircraft turned away by Dublin will simply fly elsewhere, making no net reduction in global emissions whilst harming Ireland’s economic position.
Solutions?
The High Court’s December 2024 decision to suspend cap implementation whilst referring legal proceedings to the Court of Justice of the European Union provides temporary relief [29]. Legal enforcement was suspended for two years, allowing airlines to maintain and modestly expand capacity for summer 2025 [30]. United Airlines announced it will double flights to Washington and deploy larger Dreamliner aircraft to Chicago [31].
Yet uncertainty remains the defining characteristic. Airlines require certainty to commit to new routes and aircraft deployment decisions made years in advance. The legislative process extending into 2026, combined with potential legal challenges and ongoing CJEU proceedings expected to take one to two years, means Dublin will continue as a bystander in international aviation negotiations [32].
O’Leary expressed confidence the cap would ultimately be scrapped, noting that “the legal advice is that it’s in direct contravention to freedom of movement” [33]. Jacobs contrasts Ireland’s self-imposed restriction with Saudi Arabia’s aggressive airport expansion, where DAA provides consultancy services. Saudi Arabia plans to treble its current 130 million passengers to 390 million by 2030 [34].
The ultimate cost may be measured not just in lost routes and economic activity, but in squandered potential. Dublin Airport was designed to accommodate 60 million passengers annually. As Corry concludes: “An expensive piece of infrastructure, designed to bring Dublin Airport passenger numbers to 60 million, lies underused. Ireland’s potential economic advantage is being squandered. That may turn out to be the cap’s biggest cost” [35].
For policymakers elsewhere, the Dublin Airport saga offers salutary lessons. Infrastructure constraints imposed during one era’s challenges can ossify into the next era’s impediments. Planning conditions that seem reasonable can become embedded in ways that prove resistant to change even after their original justification evaporates. The balance between local concerns and national strategic interests requires ongoing calibration, not one-time determination. And perhaps most importantly, when dealing with globally competitive industries, uncertainty itself becomes a competitive disadvantage, regardless of the final policy outcome.
The passenger cap turned 18 in August 2025. Current projections suggest it may reach 20 before Ireland can remove it [36]. In the interim, airlines will continue diverting growth to Belfast, Manchester and Continental competitors. The question Ireland faces is whether the economic and reputational cost of that delay will ultimately exceed whatever benefits the cap was meant to protect.
Sources
[11] https://www.ft.com/content/f60eecb8-ccad-45a8-84ae-1238118c9497
[20] https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2025/0927/1535572-passenger-cap/
[22] https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2025/0927/1535572-passenger-cap/
[25] https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2025/0927/1535572-passenger-cap/
[26] https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2025/0927/1535572-passenger-cap/
[28] https://www.rte.ie/news/2025/0914/1533419-dublin-airport/
[30] https://www.ft.com/content/f60eecb8-ccad-45a8-84ae-1238118c9497
[31] https://www.ft.com/content/f60eecb8-ccad-45a8-84ae-1238118c9497
[32] https://www.ft.com/content/f60eecb8-ccad-45a8-84ae-1238118c9497
[33] https://www.ft.com/content/f60eecb8-ccad-45a8-84ae-1238118c9497
[34] https://www.ft.com/content/f60eecb8-ccad-45a8-84ae-1238118c9497
Ireland’s housing crisis has evolved from a social policy concern into an existential threat to Ireland’s competitiveness. One in four small and medium-sized enterprises surveyed by Chartered Accountants Ireland reported losing employees or seeing prospective employees unable to accept roles due to the unavailability of affordable housing [1]. This represents a direct brake on economic expansion at a time when Ireland faces mounting external pressures.
The statistics paint a sobering picture. Property prices have risen by 91 per cent from 2015 to the end of 2024, whilst open market rents have increased by 78 per cent over the same period [2]. This compares with overall inflation of just 22 per cent. The median home price now stands at €370,000, having climbed for 21 consecutive months, with Dublin recording average rents of €2,102 per month [3]. These figures place Ireland amongst the most expensive housing markets in Europe, with affordability at historic lows.
Economic consequences
The talent drain has already begun. Michael McAteer, managing partner of Grant Thornton Ireland, revealed that between 25 and 30 per cent of international recruits who accepted positions with his firm subsequently cancelled after researching Ireland’s housing market [4]. “If we can’t grow our labour market because we can’t get people to physically come and live here, that is going to restrain our economic growth,” he warned, “especially when we are at virtually zero unemployment and our main industries are not capital-intensive.” [5]
This pattern extends across the economy. Enterprise Ireland CEO Leo Clancy described housing as “a big pinch point,” noting that “we’re a full employment economy as things stand today, more or less. That means that we need to still bring a lot of talent to Ireland, and that’s where housing bites specifically” [6]. A survey by Vantage found that 43 per cent of respondents within the tech industry would consider relocating to another country if housing costs remain high, whilst 51 per cent of IT professionals indicated that housing costs significantly impact their decision to remain with their current employer. [7]
The crisis has prompted extraordinary responses from employers. Ryanair purchased 40 houses near Dublin Airport to rent to new cabin crew, whilst Musgrave maintains approximately 50 staff rental properties and care-home group Windmill Healthcare has 28, with plans to expand further [8]. Supermacs has reportedly spent between €6 million and €7 million on staff housing [9]. These private sector interventions underscore the sobering reality that companies are now competing not just for talent but for the basic infrastructure required to house that talent.
A crisis of supply, not just demand
The root cause is straightforward: chronic underinvestment in construction following the 2008 financial crisis. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has made clear that no major uptick in housing supply is expected in 2025 or 2026 [10]. The ESRI estimates 33,000 new homes will be delivered in 2025 and 37,000 in 2026 — far short of the 52,000 units the Central Bank says are needed annually to meet demand [11]. Housing construction activity has fallen significantly since the property and banking crisis, creating a deficit of approximately 250,000 homes. [12]
The supply constraints are multifaceted. Construction wages are rising at 10 per cent year-on-year, pointing to potential overheating in the sector [13]. The average hourly earnings in construction jumped 10 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, far exceeding wage growth in the broader economy. This wage inflation persists despite an increase in construction employment from 177,800 in the first quarter to 190,300 in the second quarter of 2025 [14]. The Construction Industry Federation notes that statutory wage increases for site workers in 2025 were 3.4 per cent, suggesting that competition for skilled labour is driving premiums well beyond regulated rates.
Capacity constraints now create impossible trade-offs. The sector must simultaneously build houses, retrofit existing properties, and deliver infrastructure projects under the National Development Plan, all competing for the same limited pool of workers. The Department of Finance estimates that the number of workers in residential construction would need to grow by 50,000 to meet housing targets [15]. This represents a formidable scaling challenge for an industry already operating at full stretch.
The planning problem
Planning permission grants are falling precisely when they should be rising. Apartment completions dropped by 24 per cent from 2023 to 2024, according to the Central Statistics Office [16]. Cróna Clohisey, Director of Members and Advocacy at Chartered Accountants Ireland, observed that “viability of certain construction projects, namely apartments, student accommodation, and independent living facilities has been cast into sharp focus in recent months, with knock-on impacts on the costs of rent, availability of student accommodation and the lack of options for downsizers.” [17]
The regulatory burden compounds the problem. Fifty-seven per cent of small and medium-sized enterprises cited regulatory compliance as the area where they most need government help, rising to 75 per cent amongst small practices [18]. Ireland’s apartment standards are amongst the highest in Europe — the minimum size for a balcony on a three-bedroom apartment is nine square metres, equivalent to the minimum size for an entire apartment in Paris [19]. Whilst maintaining quality and safety is essential, such standards effectively price first-time buyers and other segments out of the market.
Fergal O’Brien, Executive Director of Lobbying & Influence at Ibec, described the housing shortage as “the single largest impediment to attracting and retaining talented workers, without whom business investment and expansions are not possible” [20]. Over 70 per cent of companies in an Ibec CEO survey identified housing availability for staff as a challenge to their business operations in 2023, with 30 per cent identifying it as a major challenge. [21]
The long road ahead
The Department of Finance projects that Ireland’s housing crisis will persist for at least another 15 years [22]. Housing demand is not expected to peak until the early 2030s, with “pent-up demand” not fully eliminated until at least 2040. Even under optimistic scenarios assuming housing supply reaches 60,000 units by 2030 and remains at that level, the backlog will take years to clear. This assumes the construction workforce can be expanded substantially, a significant presumption given current capacity constraints.
The cost implications are substantial. The Department of Finance projects that overall housing costs for the exchequer will rise to 2.3 per cent of national income at their peak before falling once demand normalises by 2040 [23]. This assumes 25 per cent of newly built dwellings after 2030 will be social homes, with 26 per cent of tenants in the rental market eligible for social housing supports.
The human cost is equally stark. Homelessness hit a record 14,500 people at the start of 2025 [24]. A RE/MAX Europe survey found that one-third of Irish people are considering emigration due to high housing costs, second only to Malta across the European Union [25]. Around 20 per cent of people reported “struggling or really struggling” to cover housing costs, with another 35 per cent barely coping.
Beyond fiscal tools
Some have suggested using fiscal policy to slow the Irish economy and thereby reduce pressure on the property market. This represents what economist Austin Hughes terms “a quintessentially Irish solution to what is not uniquely an Irish problem” [26]. He points out that across the OECD, house prices have risen by a cumulative 80 per cent over the past decade, with Ireland’s 78 per cent increase broadly in line with the average. [27]
Hughes argues persuasively that slowing the economy through fiscal tightening would be both ineffective and potentially regressive. “Even in economies where growth in activity and population is slow or negligible, property prices are rising quickly,” he notes [28]. The burden of fiscal adjustment would fall disproportionately on those most reliant on public services and most affected by tax changes, risking social fracture whilst failing to address the fundamental supply constraint.
The alternative is clear but challenging. Ireland could aggressively tackle planning obstacles, increase property taxes if necessary, and focus relentlessly on removing barriers to construction. As Hughes observes, “money is not the scarce resource in relation to Ireland’s housing and broader infrastructure problems. The focus in discussions of policymaking must shift from how much we spend to how effective that spending is and what obstacles need to be removed to make it more effective.” [29]
An international perspective
The European Union has recognised housing as a continental challenge, appointing Dan Jørgensen as the first-ever Commissioner for Housing [30]. Housing Europe’s State of Housing in Europe 2025 report revealed that construction is forecast to hit a 10-year low in 2025, even as demand reaches record highs [31]. Sorcha Edwards, leader of Housing Europe, reminded policymakers that “the EU too often sees housing in black and white, market versus public, when in reality there are many shades of grey.” [32]
Irish MEP Ciarán Mullooly, vice-chair of the Parliament’s special committee on the Housing Crisis, has championed the ‘Right to Stay’ principle, the idea that people should be able to live and build within their own communities [33]. “Europe gets that,” he said, “and it’s time Ireland did too.” [34]
Priorities
Ireland faces a fundamental choice. It can continue with incremental adjustments and risk seeing its competitive advantages eroded as talent relocates to more affordable markets. Or it can treat housing as the critical national infrastructure it has become, implementing the emergency measures required to close a quarter-million-unit deficit whilst meeting ongoing demand.
The construction industry federation, planning authorities, local government, and national policymakers must align behind a single, coherent vision. As Fiona Cormican, managing director of FionCor Consulting, argues, “we need one clear vision and joined-up thinking that looks at the delivery of homes as a system” [35]. This requires moving beyond risk aversion and bureaucracy towards pragmatic solutions that prioritise delivery at scale.
Michael Polzler, CEO of RE/MAX Europe, lays the stakes out simply: “You can’t grow an economy without housing” [36]. Ireland’s experience proves that economic success alone cannot solve a housing crisis born of chronic underinvestment and planning paralysis. Without bold action, the country risks seeing its hard-won economic gains undermined by the simple inability of workers to afford a place to live.
Sources
[4] https://www.businesspost.ie/news/housing-crisis-risks-economic-growth-warns-business-leader/
[5] https://www.businesspost.ie/news/housing-crisis-risks-economic-growth-warns-business-leader/
[6] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/irelands-housing-crisis-its-impact-talent-attraction-0utne/
[7] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/irelands-housing-crisis-its-impact-talent-attraction-0utne/
[12] https://www.businesspost.ie/property/addressing-irelands-housing-deficit-not-just-demand/
[30] https://www.businesspost.ie/property/addressing-irelands-housing-deficit-not-just-demand/
[31] https://www.businesspost.ie/property/addressing-irelands-housing-deficit-not-just-demand/
[32] https://www.businesspost.ie/property/addressing-irelands-housing-deficit-not-just-demand/
[33] https://www.businesspost.ie/property/addressing-irelands-housing-deficit-not-just-demand/
[34] https://www.businesspost.ie/property/addressing-irelands-housing-deficit-not-just-demand/
The arrival of artificial intelligence in Irish workplaces and classrooms has created an urgent imperative for organisations and educational institutions to rapidly develop AI literacy amongst their people, or risk falling behind in an increasingly automated world. With the European Union’s Artificial Intelligence Act now in force, this is no longer merely a strategic consideration but a legal requirement. Yet the challenge extends far beyond simple compliance, touching on fundamental questions about how we learn, work, and think in an age of intelligent machines.
AI literacy, as defined by the EU AI Act, encompasses “skills, knowledge and understanding that allow providers, deployers and affected persons, taking into account their respective rights and obligations in the context of this regulation, to make an informed deployment of AI systems, as well as to gain awareness about the opportunities and risks of AI and possible harm it can cause” [1]. This signals a shift from viewing AI as a specialist technical domain to recognising it as a foundational capability required across all sectors and levels of society.
The legislative push
The EU AI Act, which entered into force on 1 August 2024, introduces binding obligations for organisations to ensure adequate AI literacy amongst their employees and those impacted by AI outputs [2]. The Act follows a phased approach to enforcement, prioritising higher-risk areas first, a pragmatic acknowledgement of the complexity involved in implementing such sweeping changes.
For Irish organisations, the legislative timing coincides with a period of rapid AI adoption. According to PwC’s 2025 GenAI Business Leaders Survey, 86 per cent of Irish business leaders believe AI will positively impact the national economy within five years, with more than half anticipating significant or transformative effects on their own operations [3]. Yet this enthusiasm is tempered by practical challenges. Fewer than a quarter of companies can point to meaningful profitability improvements despite widespread AI experimentation [4].
David O’Sullivan, Director of Privacy, Digital Trust and AI Governance at Forvis Mazars, argues that ensuring AI literacy “isn’t just about compliance — it reduces risk, fosters innovation and drives competitive advantage” [5]. The regulatory requirement, whilst demanding, presents an opportunity for organisations to build capability that delivers tangible business benefits beyond mere legal adherence.
Strategic imperative
Ireland’s position in the global AI landscape has strengthened considerably. A November 2024 report by Stanford University’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence ranked Ireland sixth globally in terms of AI vibrancy per capita, ahead of technological powerhouses such as the UK, Israel and Sweden [6]. This achievement reflects deliberate policy choices, including the national AI strategy refreshed in November 2024, which builds on the original 2021 framework titled “AI — Here for Good” [7].
The refreshed strategy outlines seven strands addressing different aspects of AI development, with AI literacy featuring prominently across multiple domains. Strand one emphasises the importance of public trust, with the government committing to make AI literacy “an integral part of Ireland’s literacy, numeracy and digital literacy strategy 2024-2033” [8]. This ambitious goal recognises that AI literacy must extend beyond the workplace into broader civic engagement.
Leading global companies in AI development, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft and Google, have chosen Ireland as a strategic hub [9]. This concentration of AI expertise creates both opportunities and pressures for Irish organisations. Companies must compete not only with each other but with these technology giants for talent equipped with relevant AI capabilities.
Beyond one-size-fits-all
The most effective AI literacy programmes recognise that different stakeholders require different levels and types of knowledge. As O’Sullivan notes, “a one-size-fits-all approach to training rarely works” [10]. Foundational courses may suffice for employees with minimal AI interaction, whilst those developing AI systems require advanced technical training covering responsible AI, ethics and bias [11].
Kieran Harte, writing for the Irish Computer Society, outlines practical compliance steps that illustrate this stratified approach. Organisations must first evaluate current AI literacy levels, identifying gaps amongst staff and other affected persons involved in AI development, deployment and use [12]. Training must then be tailored to different roles. Management requires understanding of compliance and ethical considerations; developers need deep technical training; whilst general staff must grasp appropriate use cases and limitations [13].
Hands-on learning
Theoretical knowledge alone proves insufficient. O’Sullivan emphasises that “the best way to understand AI is to use it” [14]. Workshops, case studies and simulations help demonstrate AI’s practical impact, whilst sandbox environments allow safe experimentation [15]. This experiential approach mirrors broader educational trends recognising that active engagement drives deeper learning than passive instruction.
The value of practical application extends beyond individual skill development to organisational capability building. Companies implementing AI literacy programmes report significant benefits. One organisation documented in the EU’s AI Literacy Learning Repository saw a 30 per cent increase in AI training participation and a 65 per cent rise in AI tool utilisation [16]. These metrics suggest that effective training creates momentum, with initial adopters becoming advocates who encourage broader engagement.
Role-specific training ensures relevance. Finance teams, product managers and engineers interact with AI differently, requiring tailored approaches that address their particular workflows and challenges [17]. This specificity helps overcome the abstraction that can make generic AI training feel disconnected from daily work.
Education
Educational institutions face distinctive challenges in building AI literacy. Sean Nolan, business development manager for public sector at Agile Networks, draws parallels to historical technological disruptions: “There was a time when the calculator became pocket-sized, and this transformed how maths education worked. Maths changed from arithmetic to theoretical maths. I think AI will have a similar effect on education” [18].
Yet opinions diverge sharply on the appropriate response. Barry O’Sullivan, professor of computer science at University College Cork and member of the Government’s AI Advisory Council, urges caution. He warns that generative AI could “undermine the foundations of critical thinking, creativity and independent reasoning, the very skills that education is meant to foster” [19]. His concern centres on the writing process itself: “Writing is thinking, and if you’re not writing, you’re not thinking. There’s nothing like the writing process to help clarify your thoughts, and if you’re not doing that, if you’re just merely editing, it’s not the same thing” [20].
O’Sullivan cites MIT research finding that ChatGPT users consistently underperformed at neural, linguistic and behavioural levels when writing essays compared to ‘brain only’ and ‘google search’ users [21]. The level of originality amongst the ChatGPT group proved extremely low, as did their ability to recall what they had written. EEG analysis revealed the ChatGPT group exhibited the least brain activity [22].
Steven Duggan, vice president of Terawe and former teacher, presents a more optimistic perspective. He views generative AI as “a powerful learning assistant, capable of personalising education in ways previously unimaginable” [23]. Duggan argues that AI enables movement away from “the notion of one size fits all, by using gen AI to produce content that is tailored to different ability levels within a diverse classroom” [24].
This tension between caution and enthusiasm reflects legitimate concerns about assessment integrity, student development and the fundamental purpose of education. Duggan acknowledges these challenges but advocates for adaptation rather than resistance: “I’ve been around education technology long enough to remember when teachers were saying, ‘we can’t let students have calculators and we can’t have computers in the classroom’. It doesn’t work” [25].
Critical thinking
The proliferation of AI-generated content has created an urgent need for critical evaluation skills. Dr Barry Scannell, partner in the Technology Group at William Fry and member of the Irish Government’s AI Advisory Council, warns that “AI content in our daily feeds is becoming common. Deepfakes, AI generated text, and synthetic video and images have become part of the online experience” [26].
Despite transparency requirements in the EU AI Act mandating that AI-generated deepfakes be marked as such, Scannell observes that “this doesn’t stop people from sharing, commenting on and reacting to it as though it was real” [27]. The failure is not technological or regulatory but cognitive: many users across different age groups and education levels are “simply not engaging with digital content in a critical manner” [28].
Jean Noonan, Assistant Lecturer at TU Dublin and member of the Digital Business Ireland Advisory Council, frames this as a broader educational challenge. Quoting George Orwell’s 1984 — “It’s a beautiful thing, the destruction of words” — she asks whether AI is “empowering students or outsourcing the skills we aim to cultivate” [29]. AI literacy, she argues, “involves not only technical proficiency but also the ability to understand AI concepts, apply them across different contexts, and evaluate AI outputs” [30].
Organisational capacity
Effective implementation requires clear governance structures. Only 21 per cent of organisations have formal AI governance frameworks in place, and 69 per cent of business leaders do not believe AI will enhance shareholder trust in the coming year [31]. Yet there is strong support for regulation, with 86 per cent welcoming the EU AI Act as a necessary safeguard [32]. Risk management concerns are also widespread. Eighty-one per cent of respondents expect AI to increase cybersecurity risks over the next 12 months, whilst legal liabilities, reputational risks and misinformation feature prominently amongst leadership concerns [33].
Kate Colleary, founder and director of Pembroke Privacy, sees these challenges driving business opportunity. Her Dublin-based privacy consultancy has expanded from traditional data protection officer services into AI governance programmes and AI literacy training [34]. The company aims for 20 per cent revenue growth in 2026, reflecting growing demand for expertise in navigating the intersection of privacy regulation and AI deployment [35].
Continuous learning
AI’s rapid evolution demands ongoing engagement rather than one-off training interventions. O’Sullivan emphasises that “training should be ongoing with regular updates and refresher sessions to keep pace with advancements” [36]. This requirement for continuous learning extends beyond technical updates to encompass evolving regulatory expectations and emerging ethical considerations.
Organisations must balance immediate compliance needs with longer-term strategic capability building. McDonough notes: “Complying with the EU AI Act and ensuring AI literacy in your organisation will not be ‘finished’ in the next six months. Although compliance is achievable…monitoring, tracking and upskilling efforts will need to evolve continuously as the pace of AI change continues to accelerate” [37].
Moving forward
Ireland’s success in attracting AI investment, coupled with strong digital literacy rates, creates a foundation for leadership in AI adoption and deployment. Yet realising this potential requires sustained investment in human capability. The challenge extends beyond regulatory compliance to fundamental questions about education, work and human agency in an automated world. As Noonan observes, “the transformative power of AI in education has two sides to the coin, one of immense potential and the other of profound responsibility” [38].
Success will require collaboration between educational institutions and industry, between regulators and practitioners, and between technical specialists and domain experts. The EU AI Board’s promotion of AI literacy tools, public awareness initiatives and clarification of rights and obligations provides essential support [39]. Yet ultimately, organisations and institutions must take ownership of their AI literacy journeys, recognising that capability building represents investment in future competitiveness rather than mere compliance cost.
Ireland has positioned itself well in the global AI landscape. Whether this advantage translates into sustained competitive differentiation will depend substantially on how effectively the country develops AI literacy across its workforce and citizenry. The regulatory imperative provides impetus while the strategic opportunity provides motivation. The task now is execution.
Sources
[1] https://www.pwc.ie/services/workforce/insights/ai-literacy.html
[2] https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/six-tips-for-building-ai-literacy-in-your-organisation
[5] https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/six-tips-for-building-ai-literacy-in-your-organisation
[10] https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/six-tips-for-building-ai-literacy-in-your-organisation
[11] https://www.pwc.ie/services/workforce/insights/ai-literacy.html
[12] https://ics.ie/2024/08/30/guide-to-ai-act-literacy-requirements/
[13] https://ics.ie/2024/08/30/guide-to-ai-act-literacy-requirements/
[14] https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/six-tips-for-building-ai-literacy-in-your-organisation
[15] https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/six-tips-for-building-ai-literacy-in-your-organisation
[16] https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/six-tips-for-building-ai-literacy-in-your-organisation
[17] https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/six-tips-for-building-ai-literacy-in-your-organisation
[18] https://www.businesspost.ie/commercial-reports/ai-boom-boosts-network-demands-in-irish-education/
[36] https://www.charteredaccountants.ie/News/six-tips-for-building-ai-literacy-in-your-organisation
[37] https://www.pwc.ie/services/workforce/insights/ai-literacy.html
[39] https://ics.ie/2024/08/30/guide-to-ai-act-literacy-requirements/
Irish employers face a stark contradiction. Whilst three-quarters recognise their responsibility towards employee mental health, only one-third have implemented organisational responses to support it, and just one-fifth have allocated dedicated budgets for mental health initiatives [1]. This gap between intention and action reveals a fundamental challenge facing Irish businesses as they navigate work environments where mental health concerns have intensified rather than abated.
The scale of the problem is substantial. Mental health issues cost the Irish economy approximately eleven billion euros annually, largely through lost productivity [2]. The Irish Business and Employers Confederation estimates that eleven million days are lost through absenteeism every year at a cost of €1.5 billion, or €818 per employee [3]. Yet despite widespread recognition of these costs, meaningful investment in workplace mental health support remains the exception rather than the rule.
Ireland’s position
Recent data paints a particularly troubling picture of Ireland’s standing internationally. According to Eurofound’s Mind Health Report 2025, Ireland has the lowest average Mind Health score among nine EU countries surveyed, with forty-eight per cent of the population reporting they are struggling or languishing, compared to thirty-seven per cent in Switzerland, which had the highest score [4]. This represents a significant deterioration in national mental health, occurring despite a twenty per cent increase in Ireland’s mental health workforce over the past five years [5].
The workplace dimension of this crisis is especially pronounced. Nicole Paulie, Chartered Counselling Psychologist and Clinical Lead at laya healthcare’s 24/7 Mental Wellbeing Support Programme, notes that the Mind Health Report 2025 “mirrors the laya healthcare Workplace Wellbeing research over the last five years, highlighting the growing mental health needs of adults in Ireland” [6]. The research reveals that fifty-one per cent of Irish employees cite their salary level as negatively impacting their mental wellbeing, placing Ireland sixth among EU countries [7].
The consequences manifest in multiple ways. A substantial seventy-eight per cent of Irish employees who report work-related stress name at least one impact in their daily lives, with common issues including difficulty sleeping (forty per cent), increased irritability and mood swings (thirty-four per cent), and physical symptoms like headaches (thirty-four per cent) [8]. In the workplace itself, thirty per cent of employees experiencing stress report decreased motivation and productivity, whilst ten per cent report increased absenteeism or lateness [9].
Implementation gap
Research from Cork University Business School surveying 1,501 Irish firms reveals the extent of the implementation gap [8]. Eighteen per cent of companies experience employee absenteeism due to mental health reasons, rising to forty per cent among firms with fifty or more employees [8]. More than half of employers report that the proportion of absenteeism due to mental ill-health has increased in the last twelve months, and sixty-four per cent state that sickness absence adversely impacts business performance [10].
Despite this, the adoption of mental health support initiatives remains limited. The most widely adopted measure — having a health and wellbeing lead at board or senior level — exists in just thirty-two per cent of businesses [11]. Only twenty-three per cent have a mental health plan, twenty-two per cent use data to monitor employee health and wellbeing, and a mere ten per cent employ mental health champions. In-house mental health support and signposting of services is provided by twenty-nine per cent of firms [12].
The reluctance to invest is particularly evident in budget allocation. Eighty per cent of Irish employers do not have a dedicated budget for mental health and wellbeing [8]. As the Cork University Business School research notes, “This suggests a disparity in employers’ recognition of their responsibilities to and investment in workplace mental health and well-being. It also suggests that employers are more likely to implement mental health and well-being initiatives that do not involve a financial outlay” [13].
Firm size creates a stark divide in provision. Amongst larger firms with fifty or more employees, fifty-seven per cent implement in-house mental health support and signposting of services, compared to just twenty per cent of firms with ten to nineteen employees [14]. Similarly, forty-two per cent of larger firms have a mental health budget compared to thirteen per cent of smaller firms [15]. From a sectoral perspective, employers in business and non-business services are more likely to have a mental health budget (twenty-nine per cent) compared to employers in wholesale and retail (eleven per cent) and construction (twelve per cent) [16].
International comparison
When benchmarked against England, Irish firms demonstrate notably less engagement with mental health support despite reporting somewhat lower incidences of mental health absence. The proportion of Irish firms reporting incidents of mental health sickness absence (eighteen per cent) is lower than in England (twenty-six per cent), a pattern repeated across sectors and firm size bands [17]. However, Irish firms are notably less likely to have a mental health plan (twenty-three per cent versus thirty-one per cent in England), a mental health lead at board level (thirty-two per cent versus forty-three per cent), and are significantly less likely to monitor employee wellbeing (twenty-two per cent versus forty-four per cent) [18].
Conversely, presenteeism — working whilst unwell — is reported by twenty-seven per cent of Irish firms, higher than the twenty-one per cent reporting it in England [19]. Irish employers attribute this primarily to the need to meet deadlines and client demand (thirty-nine per cent) compared to twenty-seven per cent of English businesses [20].
Stigma
Persistent stigma continues to inhibit open discussion about mental health in Irish workplaces. St Patrick’s Mental Health Services’ annual survey of one thousand adults found that forty-seven per cent were unaware that employers are obliged to provide reasonable accommodations for staff experiencing mental health difficulties, whilst forty-two per cent would not be comfortable explaining to their boss that they needed time off for such difficulties [21]. Thirty-seven per cent of respondents cited work-related issues as a factor influencing their mental wellbeing, yet thirty-nine per cent do not believe that someone who experiences panic attacks could work as head of a large company [22].
The survey also revealed that fifty-two per cent believe Irish workplaces are not open to employing people with mental health difficulties [23]. Paul Gilligan, CEO of St Patrick’s Mental Health Services, acknowledges that whilst attitudes are gradually improving, substantial work remains: “Most organisations still see mental health as a challenge, but in reality, good mental health in the workplace is the foundation on which success is built. Coming to work should enhance our mental health, rather than impact it negatively” [24].
The fear of disclosure is particularly acute amongst those living with mental health conditions. Laya healthcare’s Workplace Wellbeing Index 2025 revealed that one in two employees report living with an underlying health condition or mental wellbeing issue, with anxiety and depression as the most cited conditions [25]. However, fifty-four per cent of those with a health condition or disability admit they would be embarrassed to speak to their employer about it, whilst one in two with a mental health condition fear being treated differently if they disclose it to their employer [26].
Sinéad Proos, Head of Health and Wellbeing at laya healthcare, emphasises the importance of addressing this communication breakdown: “Employers and employees need to communicate more openly about health conditions and disabilities. Not having a diagnosis or feeling unable to discuss needed support can cause unnecessary stress and hardship for team members. It’s crucial that organisations prioritise clear communication about health and wellbeing resources, making them easily accessible so employees can get the support they deserve” [27].
The disclosure challenge extends beyond mental health to other dimensions of diversity. Fifteen per cent of employees report living with a neurodiverse condition, yet less than half have told their employers [28]. Similarly, one in ten employees identifies as LGBTQ+, yet sixty-eight per cent of HR leaders were either unaware of any LGBTQ+ people in their organisations or put their estimate at five per cent [29]. Gay, lesbian, or bisexual employees are more likely than their straight peers to report feeling lonely on a daily basis and more likely to feel disconnected from colleagues [30].
Coping
Perhaps most concerning are findings about how employees cope with workplace pressures. The laya healthcare Workplace Wellbeing Index revealed that sixteen per cent of employees are addicted to or have an unhealthy relationship with Class A or illicit drugs. Two in five Irish workers report addiction to or an unhealthy relationship with at least one substance, with nicotine (twenty-nine per cent) and alcohol (twenty-one per cent) being most prevalent [31].
As Sinéad Proos observes: “Employers should recognise addiction as a serious issue impacting Irish workplaces, encompassing substance use, gambling and social media. While these results are concerning, they also present a valuable opportunity for employers to prioritise employee wellbeing. By fostering a supportive culture and providing access to resources like counselling and employee assistance programs, we can support and empower employees to make the first steps towards improving their health and wellbeing” [32].
Financial stress emerges as a particularly significant driver of poor mental health. Brian O’Donovan, Health and Wellness Service Development Manager at laya healthcare, notes: “We’ve seen overall intense anxiety reduce slightly which is good news but financial concerns are still the biggest drivers of anxiety. While concerns about the Irish economy dropped significantly, smaller drops were found in concerns about personal money worries and financial wellbeing” [33]. This aligns with broader Eurofound findings that thirty-two per cent of the Irish population cite the current economic climate and twenty-six per cent cite the housing crisis as negatively affecting their mental health [34].
Access
Beyond workplace support, access to mental health services remains a critical barrier in Ireland. Eurofound’s analysis shows that in 2023, nearly forty per cent of people who delayed seeking help cited stigma or fear of judgement, whilst a third did not know where to turn [35]. Shortages and long waiting times, particularly for child and adolescent services, compound the problem, with seventeen per cent of people in rural areas citing a lack of local services [36]. Although free counselling is available in some areas, waiting times and other accessibility issues often mean that the private sector is the only feasible option.
A stark two-tier system exists for accessing mental health services, with the public system plagued by long delays and under-resourcing whilst private services offer faster access but at prohibitive cost. Mental Health Reform, a coalition of charities, warns that if Ireland is to meet a long-standing target of ten per cent of the health budget being allocated to mental health by 2030, as set out in Sláintecare, then there needs to be a real change of gear. Currently, under six per cent of the total health budget is allocated to mental health [37].
Dr Louise Rooney, Policy and Research Manager at Mental Health Reform, notes: “In 2023, the European Union revealed that Ireland was the most difficult country in Europe in which to access mental health services. In fact, last year we spent approximately €93 million on outsourcing mental health care, made up of €13 million for the Treatment Abroad Scheme, and €79.66 million for private mental health services — funds that could instead be redirected to build our own public and voluntary service capacity” [38].
Investment
Despite the clear need and business case for workplace mental health investment, understanding of the potential returns remains limited. International research demonstrates that investment in manager mental health training programmes can lead to significant reductions in work-related sickness absence, with an associated return on investment of £9.98 for each pound spent on such training [39]. Organisations implementing comprehensive mental health support report increased staff morale, reduced absenteeism and presenteeism, improved work performance and productivity, and enhanced recruitment and retention.
The Health Service Executive’s experience during the pandemic demonstrates what comprehensive, coordinated support can achieve. The HSE Workplace Health and Wellbeing Unit mobilised and adapted pre-existing structures to safeguard mental health, including an Employee Assistance Programme providing free, confidential counselling; a National Health and Safety Function implementing psychosocial risk management; and Organisational Health Services supporting evidence-based best practices. Analysis showed that Covid-related absence accounted for 2.8 per cent of total 2021 absence, whilst the overall absence rate in 2020 (6.1 per cent) was 1.4 percentage points higher than in 2019 (4.7 per cent) [40].
However, as the Cork University Business School research questions: “Why are Irish employers, the majority of whom acknowledge their responsibilities, not investing in workplace mental health and wellbeing to a greater extent? It may be that the business case for investing in mental health and wellbeing is unclear to Irish businesses. In the international literature, the wealth of practices and interventions in use, and the lack of standardisation of approach, makes comparison of firm approaches challenging” [41].
Moving forward
The evidence suggests that addressing workplace mental health requires more than acknowledgement. It demands investment, structural change, and genuine commitment. Until Irish employers close the gap between acknowledging their responsibilities and investing in comprehensive mental health support, the workplace will continue to suffer in silence. With Ireland now ranking bottom of EU mental health rankings and mental health-related absence increasing post-pandemic, the cost of continued inaction is high.
Sources
[2] https://healthyworkplace.ie/areas/wellbeing-areas/mental-health/
[3] https://healthyworkplace.ie/areas/wellbeing-areas/mental-health/
Ireland’s economic model is built on attracting multinational investment and high-skilled workers. Yet it faces mounting pressure from housing shortages, rising living costs, and an increasingly competitive global market for talent. As Paul Sweetman, Chief Executive of the American Chamber of Commerce Ireland, puts it: “Ireland’s talent is our greatest strength — but immigration delays risk losing it” [1].
Recent data reveals both the scale of Ireland’s success in attracting migrants and the emerging cracks in its competitive position. In 2024, Ireland recorded 149,200 immigrants, a 17-year high, with net inward migration of 79,300 persons [2]. Yet this achievement masks a troubling counter-trend. Namely that emigration has surged by 37% since 2020, with particularly stark increases amongst young Irish nationals and women [3]. This simultaneous rise in both immigration and emigration during a period of strong economic growth represents an unusual pattern that demands attention from policymakers and business leaders alike.
Ireland’s talent advantage
Ireland’s transformation from a country of emigration to one of immigration reflects decades of strategic positioning. One-fifth of Ireland’s workforce today is international, and this blend of homegrown and international expertise has become central to the country’s value proposition for foreign direct investment [4]. According to a recent AmCham member survey, 90% of US multinationals with a presence in Ireland hold a positive view of the country as an investment location, with 63% identifying access to Ireland’s highly educated and skilled talent pool as the country’s strongest competitive advantage [5].
The numbers underscore Ireland’s distinctive position within Europe. Graduate immigration to Ireland has been an engine of economic growth, with over 60% of working-age immigrants holding graduate qualifications, roughly double the EU average [6]. As economist John FitzGerald observes, “More than 40 per cent of those working in our IT sector are immigrants, where average pay is almost €90,000” [7]. This concentration of highly skilled workers has enabled Ireland to punch above its weight in sectors from pharmaceuticals to financial services.
The financial services sector exemplifies this dependence on international talent. Almost 30% of health service workers have come from abroad, whilst 40% of IT sector employees are immigrants [8]. These figures represent not simply labour market statistics but the operational reality of Ireland’s economic model. Without sustained inward migration of skilled workers, many multinational operations in Ireland would struggle to maintain their current scale.
Talent shortage
Ireland’s headline success in attracting global talent masks the deeper structural vulnerability of a widening skills gap that is increasingly constraining employers across multiple sectors. While one-fifth of the workforce is now international, 64% of AmCham members report experiencing a skills shortage, signalling that Ireland’s talent pipeline is struggling to keep pace with the economy’s needs. [9]
The shortages emerging in financial services, technology, healthcare and construction are not the result of an absolute lack of workers, but of a mismatch between the speed at which industries are evolving and the capacity of the domestic labour market to respond. As Róisín Fitzpatrick of Deloitte notes, Ireland’s economy “needs to get the right talent into the right roles,” a challenge that has become acute as unemployment has fallen to pre-pandemic lows and demand for specialised workers has surged. [10]
Healthcare provides one of the clearest examples. When acute shortages of care staff became impossible to fill domestically, the government expanded the employment permits system in 2021 to allow international recruitment of healthcare assistants. Permit approvals in this category surged from 121 in 2020 to 1,345 in 2022, enabling nursing homes and care facilities to stabilise operations that had been under severe strain [11].
The corporate sector has also become more reliant on alternative talent pathways, such as hiring spouses and partners of Critical Skills Employment Permit holders, or employing international protection applicants after six months in the system. These mechanisms allow firms to access a broader pool of potential workers and partially offset shortages where traditional recruitment is falling short
Yet these adaptive measures highlight a more fundamental problem: Ireland’s long-term competitiveness increasingly depends on sustained inward migration, not only to fill gaps but to enable strategic growth. As Fitzpatrick emphasises, if employers cannot access the skills they need, they will simply move roles elsewhere [12]. This is already evident in sectors where delays or shortages have directly impeded expansion plans or pushed investment to competing jurisdictions with smoother access to international talent.
In this context, the talent shortage is best understood not as a temporary imbalance but as a structural feature of Ireland’s economic model. High-value industries from pharmaceuticals to digital services depend on specialised labour that the domestic system cannot produce at sufficient scale or speed. Migration has been the safety valve that keeps these sectors functioning. Maintaining that flow of skills is central to Ireland’s ability to remain a leading destination for multinational business and to deliver the growth that underpins its wider economic strategy.
Immigration system
Ireland’s immigration infrastructure, designed during an era of more modest inflows, struggles to keep pace with demand. Current processing times for overseas employees average four to eight weeks across multiple government departments. This is a stark disadvantage compared with the UK’s five to seven day average [13]. These delays have real commercial consequences, with employers reporting project cancellations and businesses choosing alternative jurisdictions for investment.
The employment permits system has expanded dramatically to meet demand. From 2020 to 2024, employment permits more than doubled, reaching nearly 40,000 persons in 2024 [14]. India now dominates permit allocations, accounting for over a third of all permits issued, followed by Brazil and the Philippines [15]. The health sector has been the major beneficiary, representing 32.5% of all permits, followed by ICT at 18.4% [16].
Yet this expansion raises questions about system sustainability. December 2023 saw the largest ever expansion to the employment permits system, adding 11 roles to the Critical Skills Occupation List and 32 roles to the General Employment Permits list [17]. Whilst these changes demonstrate responsiveness to market needs, they also highlight the persistent gap between domestic labour supply and employer demand across an ever-widening range of occupations.
Emigration
Perhaps most concerning for Irish policymakers is the surge in emigration despite strong economic growth. Female emigration increased by 56% from 2020 to 2024, compared with just 12% for males [18]. Since 2022, female emigration amongst the 15-24 age cohort has been nearly double that of males (39,100 versus 26,300) [19]. Irish nationals aged 25-44 have shown a 17.5% annual increase in emigration since 2021 [20].
The Growing Up in Ireland survey provides insight into these choices. One in eight respondents had emigrated, with employment opportunities (43.4%) the most common reason, followed by education and training (21.2%) [21]. Critically, over one-third said they had difficulties making ends meet, and 97.7% were concerned with the housing situation in Ireland [22]. Almost half planned to return to Ireland, but one-fifth stated they did not intend to return, with 30% undecided [23].
This represents a worrying erosion of Ireland’s competitive position. As Paschal Donohoe, Minister for Finance, notes: “Continued skilled inward migration will be vital to maintain growth in the labour force. Our openness will continue to be a great source of strength and a competitive advantage. We need to manage this well” [24].
European context
Ireland’s migration challenges must be understood within a broader European context. On a per capita basis, Ireland ranks seventh highest for net inward migration amongst EU27 countries since 2020 [25]. Irish inward migration flows are approximately twice the European average, a pattern that has persisted over the past decade [26]. Similarly, outward flows from Ireland are roughly twice the European average, with Ireland ranked fourth in per capita outward flows [27].
This high degree of labour market mobility reflects both Ireland’s economic openness and its attractiveness to international workers. Yet it also exposes vulnerabilities. Countries such as Denmark, Sweden, France, Spain and the Netherlands increasingly compete for the same global talent pool [28]. Many offer comparable or superior earnings for graduates, with Ireland holding only the 14th highest graduate earnings in real terms across EU countries [29].
The expansion of the EU labour market following enlargement provides opportunities but no guarantee of meeting Ireland’s needs. Analysis suggests that whilst demand for unskilled labour can likely be met from within the expanded EU, high-skilled migration requirements are unlikely to be filled entirely from EEA sources [30]. Just 6 million EU graduates actually work in countries where average wages are significantly lower than Irish wages — 16.8% of the total graduate workforce [31].
What to do
Addressing these challenges requires both immediate reforms and longer-term strategic thinking. In the short term, the introduction of a “one stop shop” for immigration services represents a crucial step towards improving processing efficiency [32]. Creating a unified permit combining the Irish residence permit card, employment permit and entry visa would greatly enhance the user experience and reduce administrative burden.
More fundamentally, Ireland must consider whether its temporary work permit system adequately serves the country’s needs. The Expert Group on Future Skills Needs has proposed a dual system: a Green Card programme leading to permanent residency for high-skilled migrants, alongside a reformed work permit system for temporary migration [33]. Such an approach would better align Ireland with international competitors who offer clear pathways to permanency for desired talent.
The integration of international students into the labour market presents another underutilised opportunity. Over 40,000 international students were enrolled in Irish academic institutions in 2023/2024 [34]. Yet the current system requires non-EEA students to leave the country before applying for work visas, an inefficient process that represents “a significant disadvantage to the Irish enterprise sector” [35]. Schemes similar to Scotland’s Fresh Talent programme, which allows non-EEA students with honours degrees to remain for two years after graduation whilst seeking employment, merit serious consideration.
Housing
Underlying many of Ireland’s migration challenges is the accommodation crisis. Róisín Fitzpatrick of Deloitte notes that family decisions on whether to relocate to a new country often hinge on dependent partners’ access to the labour market [36]. But housing availability increasingly trumps labour market access in location decisions.
The Growing Up in Ireland survey data confirms that housing concerns significantly influence emigration decisions, particularly amongst younger cohorts [37]. This creates a vicious cycle where inadequate housing discourages both international talent from arriving and Irish talent from remaining, which in turn constrains economic growth and the resources available to address housing shortages.
As ESRI research indicates, if all migrants resident in Ireland were employed at levels matching their educational qualifications, it would add between 3.5% and 3.7% to GNP [38]. This “occupational gap” reflects not only qualification recognition issues but also the constraints imposed by inadequate housing and infrastructure on migrants’ ability to fully contribute to the economy.
Crossroads
Ireland’s economic model increasingly depends on its ability to attract and retain global talent. The post-pandemic surge in immigration — 149,200 persons in 2024 — demonstrates the country’s continued appeal. The employment permits system has proven flexible and responsive, with Dublin hosting 55% of all new permits and the health sector successfully accessing international labour markets [39].
Yet sustainability questions persist. The Department of Finance forecasts annual net migration of 35,000 persons from 2025 to 2030, with scenarios ranging from 25,000 to 45,000 depending on housing supply and other factors [40]. Under even the higher scenario, meeting the Programme for Government target of 300,000 additional jobs by 2030 will require maximising labour force participation alongside sustained immigration.
The simultaneous rise in immigration and emigration, particularly amongst young Irish nationals, suggests Ireland stands at a crossroads. Without addressing housing costs, improving immigration processing efficiency, and creating clearer pathways to permanency for desired talent, the country risks losing its competitive advantage in the global war for skills.
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[3] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[4] https://www.businesspost.ie/analysis-opinion/paul-sweetman-irelands-talent-is-our-greatest-strength-but-immigration-delays-risk-losing-it/
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[16] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[17] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[18] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[19] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[20] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[21] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[22] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[23] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[24] https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025/11/04/opinion-continued-skilled-inward-migration-will-be-vital-to-our-future/
[25] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[26] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[27] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[28] https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2025/03/14/st-patrick-was-an-immigrant-and-ireland-continues-to-benefit-from-them/
[29] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[30] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[31] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[32]
https://www.businesspost.ie/analysis-opinion/paul-sweetman-irelands-talent-is-our-greatest-strength-but-immigration-delays-risk-losing-it/
[33] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[34] https://www.businesspost.ie/analysis-opinion/paul-sweetman-irelands-talent-is-our-greatest-strength-but-immigration-delays-risk-losing-it/
[35] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[36] https://www.businesspost.ie/commercial-reports/the-benefits-of-encouraging-an-international-workforce-to-come-here/
[37] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[38] https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2025/03/14/st-patrick-was-an-immigrant-and-ireland-continues-to-benefit-from-them/
[39] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[40] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
[41] https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/publications/publication-files/recent-trends-in-migration-flows-impacting-the-irish-labour-market.pdf
Something curious has happened in Silicon Valley. The debate about whether artificial intelligence represents a speculative bubble has effectively ended. Not because investors have concluded it isn’t a bubble, but because they’ve decided bubbles don’t matter. This intellectual pivot, from denial to acceptance to enthusiastic embrace, represents either sophisticated long-term thinking or a spectacular failure of collective rationality. The stakes are high enough that getting the answer wrong could reshape the global financial system.
Consider the remarkable candour now commonplace amongst those with the most to lose. “Of course there’s a bubble,” says Hemant Taneja, chief executive of General Catalyst, a venture capital firm that raised an eight billion dollar fund and backed AI companies including Anthropic and Mistral [1]. Sam Altman, whose OpenAI sits at the epicentre of the frenzy, offers investors words they rarely hear from chief executives: “I do think some investors are likely to lose a lot of money” [2]. Even Jeff Bezos, who built Amazon amidst the dotcom carnage, now draws careful distinctions between financial bubbles (bad) and industrial bubbles (possibly good) [3].
This shift from “there is no AI bubble” to “AI is a bubble and bubbles are great” suggests we’ve moved through Elisabeth Kübler-Ross’s stages of grief at remarkable speed [4]. What it doesn’t suggest is any lessening of the mania itself.
The mathematics of madness
The scale of capital deployment defies easy comprehension. US venture capitalists have committed 161 billion dollars to AI companies over the year to date, two-thirds of their total spending [5]. Ten loss-making AI start-ups have gained close to one trillion dollars in valuation over the past twelve months alone [6]. Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta will spend 750 billion dollars on data centres this year and next, with Morgan Stanley projecting total global spending to reach three trillion dollars by 2029 [7]. That final figure equals roughly fifteen per cent of the European Union’s entire GDP [8].
Historical context makes these numbers even more startling. When venture capitalists funded the original dotcom boom, they invested 10.5 billion dollars into internet companies in 2000, approximately twenty billion dollars in today’s money. During 2021’s software frenzy, they deployed 135 billion dollars into software-as-a-service start-ups. This year, they’re on course to exceed 200 billion dollars on AI alone [9].
Yet valuations have become untethered even by the generous standards of venture capital. Start-ups generating merely five million dollars in annual recurring revenue now seek valuations exceeding 500 million dollars, according to a senior Silicon Valley venture capitalist. “Even during peak Zirp (zero-interest rate policies), these would have been 250 million to 300 million dollar valuations,” he notes [10]. The market, as he puts it more bluntly, “is investing as if all these companies are outliers. That’s generally not the way it works out” [11].
Goldman Sachs chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer maintains that we’re witnessing “not a bubble… yet” [12]. His analysis comparing the Magnificent Seven tech companies to definitive historical bubbles finds them relatively reasonable on forward price-to-earnings ratios compared to 2000, 1989 or 1973 [13]. Yet other metrics flash warnings. The technology, media and telecoms sector trades richer on a price-to-book basis than at the 2000 peak. Palantir, the data and AI company, commands a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 225, the highest valuation of any S&P 500 company [14].
By October, a Bank of America survey found that an AI bubble had become perceived as the number one downside risk to global growth, overtaking even concerns about Trump administration policies that had dominated for most of the year [15]. More than half of fund managers in an earlier survey believed AI stocks were already in bubble territory [16].
Productive mania
The intellectual defence of AI excess rests on historical precedent and economic theory. Eric Schmidt, Google’s former boss, makes the case enthusiastically: “Bubbles are great. May the bubbles continue” [17]. Their function, he argues, is to redirect vast pools of capital into frontier technology and infrastructure, which ultimately benefits society regardless of what happens to investors.
Schmidt poses a thought experiment that clarifies the logic. What if a technology company achieved artificial general intelligence, then superintelligence? Such technology would exceed the sum of human knowledge and solve humanity’s hardest problems. “What’s the value of that company?” he asks. “It’s a very, very large number. Much larger than any other company in history, forever, probably” [18].
This isn’t merely Silicon Valley self-justification. Nobel laureate William Nordhaus estimated that between 1948 and 2001, innovating companies captured only 3.7 per cent of the value their innovations created, with 96.3 per cent flowing to society at large, mostly through consumer benefits. Put differently, spillover benefits were 26 times larger than private profits [19]. If AI follows this pattern, investments could generate enormous social value whilst destroying investor capital, a painful irony that nevertheless represents economic progress.
The canonical example remains Britain’s railway mania of the 1840s. Investors lost fortunes. Share prices collapsed. Yet Britain ended up with railways that transformed the economy for generations. As Victorian historian John Francis wrote: “It is not the promoters, but the opponents of railways, who are the madmen” [20].
Marc Benioff, Salesforce’s co-founder and chief executive, estimates that perhaps one trillion dollars of AI investment might be wasted, but that the technology will ultimately yield ten times that in new value. “The only way we know how to build great technology,” he argues, “is to throw as much against the wall as possible, see what sticks, and then focus on the winners” [21].
Inconvenient complications
This sanguine narrative glosses over substantial problems. William Quinn, co-author of Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles, notes that funding railways through a bubble rather than central planning “left Britain with a very inefficiently designed rail network. That’s caused problems right up to the present day” [22].
George Hudson, the “railway king” who controlled four of Britain’s largest railway companies whilst simultaneously serving as mayor of York and an MP, kept his empire afloat through distinctly Ponzi-like operations. He funded dividends for existing shareholders from freshly raised capital and defrauded investors by having companies he controlled buy his personal shares at above-market prices. Only parliamentary immunity from arrest for unpaid debts kept him from ruin before his eventual exile to France [23].
Historian William J. Bernstein notes that “the closest modern equivalent would be the chairman of Goldman Sachs simultaneously serving in the US Senate” [24]. One need not work hard to imagine contemporary parallels.
Profitability vacuum
The gap between investment and return is already uncomfortably wide. Research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that 95 per cent of companies surveyed were getting zero return from their investments in generative AI [25]. OpenAI, three years after launching ChatGPT, has reached thirteen billion dollars in annualised revenue, unprecedented growth for a start-up. Yet the company is on course to burn 8.5 billion dollars in cash this year [26].
Is OpenAI worth 500 billion dollars? The question seems absurd until one considers the alternative. If the company achieves AGI, perhaps any finite valuation is too low. If it doesn’t, the current valuation is fantastical.
This binary logic pervades the entire sector. OpenAI and competitors are racing against Meta, Google and others in a capital-intensive contest to train ever-better models, meaning the path to profitability extends further than for previous start-up generations [27]. The deals with chipmakers and cloud providers represent bets that AI demand will continue its stratospheric growth, enabled by research breakthroughs and new products that remain hypothetical.
About one-third of AI-related capital expenditure is sinking into short-lived assets like Nvidia’s graphics processing units, which have a useful life for frontier applications of roughly three years [28]. Tech analysts Azeem Azhar and Nathan Warren note that GPUs “age in dog years” [29]. Unlike railways or power grids that serve for generations, this infrastructure may become obsolete before generating returns, though the depreciation pressure might impose discipline that was absent in earlier bubbles.
Geopolitical wildcard
China’s rapid advancement at dramatically lower costs introduces another dimension of uncertainty. Beijing-based Moonshot AI unveiled its Kimi K2 Thinking model for less than five million dollars in training costs [30]. When Chinese firm DeepSeek launched a low-cost ChatGPT competitor earlier this year, Nvidia lost nearly 600 billion dollars in market value in a single day [31].
Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, recently warned that China will “win the AI war” as it becomes a tech superpower [32]. This wasn’t defeatism but frustration; Trump’s administration won’t allow Nvidia to sell advanced chips in China, potentially ceding ground in the world’s second-largest economy. If Chinese companies can match or exceed Western AI capabilities at a fraction of the cost, what does that imply for the trillion-dollar bets being placed in Silicon Valley?
Crashes
Carlota Perez, author of Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, sees AI as an extension of the information technology revolution beginning in the 1970s, the fifth great technological revolution she identifies. Her framework describes a predictable pattern: an installation phase featuring creative destruction, social disruption, over-investment, financial mania and bubbles. Those bubbles fund vital infrastructure enabling subsequent mass rollout and broader economic benefits through what she terms a “golden age” [33].
“I have not seen a golden age happening without a crash,” Perez states [34]. She warns that capital markets are currently misfiring, focusing more on speculative games like crypto than productive investments, with global debt exceeding three times GDP. “This could also be a trigger for gigantic instability,” she adds [35].
Recent market action offers a preview. Tech stocks experienced their worst week in seven months during early November, with Nvidia losing 500 billion dollars in market value over five days [36]. The Nasdaq fell more than 4.5 per cent over the week, with firms investing heavily in AI losing nearly one trillion euros in market value amid investor anxiety that billions deployed may not generate hoped-for returns [37].
Patrick Honohan, former governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, warns starkly that the AI bubble now ranks amongst the biggest threats to the global financial system. Whilst equity fluctuations might seem inconsequential, he notes, “they have an effect on what’s happening — what’s being bought using these valuations — and raising capital” [38]. His nightmare scenario envisions investors gradually realising that AGI is “not five or ten years away, it’s 50 or 100 years away,” triggering substantial falls that ripple through interconnected markets [39].
Asked whether we’re in an AI bubble, scientist and entrepreneur Stephen Wolfram says: “The answer is obviously yes.” As for talk about AGI? “It’s a meaningless thing” [40]. Andrew Odlyzko is similarly unimpressed by analogies between railways and AI. People at least understood how railways worked and what they were supposed to do. This is not the case with generative AI. “We are losing contact with reality,” he says [41].
Strategic response
For executives and investors, the question is not whether to engage with AI — the technology’s potential is too significant to ignore — but how to do so with appropriate scepticism. Simon Edelsten, fund manager at Goshawk Asset Management, counsels against trying to time the market perfectly. “Watch individual stocks and sell if they are too aggressively valued,” he advises [42]. His firm has reduced exposure to Magnificent Seven stocks from twenty per cent to roughly nine per cent by selling Tesla, Nvidia and Meta whilst retaining positions in Microsoft and Amazon where valuations “look merely stretched, not ridiculous” [43].
William Quinn offers comfort in noting that when banks stay away from bubbles, their bursting has limited effects, true in the 1840s and potentially true today [44]. Unlike the dotcom era, leading AI companies have genuine cash flow and profits. The critical question is whether they’re deploying that capital wisely, which recent earnings reactions suggest investors are beginning to scrutinise more carefully.
The lesson from 2000, Edelsten argues, was that “if the valuations of the shares you are buying seem reasonable then you need not worry too much about the stretched valuations of the shares others own” [45]. Long-neglected sectors like healthcare and consumer staples offer alternative homes for capital. His firm recently bought Nestlé — about as far from AI excitement as one can get — whose nearly four per cent yield in Swiss francs “looks pretty sweet” [46].
A bit of both
Perhaps both camps are correct. AI likely represents genuinely transformative technology whilst simultaneously existing in a bubble characterised by irrational exuberance and catastrophic capital misallocation. Bret Taylor, OpenAI’s chair, articulates this duality clearly: AI will “transform the economy”, he says, and “create huge amounts of economic value in the future. But I think we’re also in a bubble, and a lot of people will lose a lot of money” [47].
The challenge for business leaders is distinguishing between revolutionary technology and revolutionary valuations. History suggests bubbles often fund important infrastructure whilst leaving wreckage in their wake. The winners will be those who can maintain that distinction even as markets lose contact with reality.
Sources
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